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The xGorithm: GW27 & 28: 76 & 32 points + DGW29 points projection and optimal free hit analysis

2020.03.06 14:40 blubbersassafras The xGorithm: GW27 & 28: 76 & 32 points + DGW29 points projection and optimal free hit analysis

The xGorithm: GW27 & 28: 76 & 32 points + DGW29 points projection and optimal free hit analysis
Hi FantasyPL, after a brief hiatus I'm back again to share the projections from the expected stats and form-based forecasting algorithm that I am developing! The code for my project can be found on GitHub.
The algorithm uses several components of project goalscoring and assisting probabilities, as well as clean sheet odds and BPS data, to give an individual predicted score for each player. An iterative form-based process is used to calculate teams' relative attacking and defensive strength at home and away, along with each player's output relative to the rest of their team (again, weighted to favour players on good form), which are compiled to calculate each player's expected returns in a given fixture weighted to favour current form. Then, based on these returns and individual baseline BPS data, expected bonus points are added to players' expected points by deriving expected values from thousands of randomised simulations with FF Scout's predicted lineup.

GW27 & 28 Review

GW27: 76 points
The xGorithm had another successful week in GW27, the 5-2-3 formation paying off immensely. Some canny clean sheet predictions, a successful captaincy, and a nice slice of luck in selecting PVA for his biggest haul of the season made for a good GW rank of ~50k. The 5-2-3 formation is one with high variance due to the unpredictable nature of clean seets, and this week I feel like it fell on the right side of luck. That said, the team as a whole actually underperformed their expected stats, obtaining 82 expected points.
GW28: 32 points
GW28 went about as badly for the xGorithm as for everyone else. The faith that it has shown in Doherty for perhaps slightly too long is now finally being paid off with back-to-back double-digit hauls. It opted for a Vardy captaincy, not having fancied any option to score highly. Again, expected stats were underperformed to make about 4 points.

DGW29 Forecast

Due to the nature of this DGW, I am going to analyse this slightly differently to usual: as explained several times before, the most significant pitfall of this project is the inability to predict the Pep roulette, which has led to me ignoring rotation-prone players completely over the last few months. However, even MCI assets this GW are unignorable this week, so I will present different forecasts based on which matches each player plays.
Player mun Forecast ARS Forecast Total
De Bruyne 4.55 5.28 9.83
Sterling 4.57 5.42 9.99
Mahrez 4.84 5.64 10.48
Aguero 5.39 6.35 11.74
Jesus 5.22 6.10 11.32
Foden (!?) 3.02 3.30 6.32
Walker 2.94 4.15 7.09
There are a couple of Arsenal assets who seem prone to rotation at the moment too:
Player WHU Forecast mci Forecast Total
Nketiah 5.31 3.20 8.51
Martinelli 5.71 3.62 9.33
Saka 2.95 2.16 5.11
If we make an assumption that Pep will be on his least fraudulent behaviour and starts a lineup in both games which includes Aguero, KDB, Mahrez and Sterling and that Arteta will start Nketiah for both games, then the optimal free hit team for the next GW looks like this:
Expected points: 97.3
On the other hand, if we take the more pesimistic view that only KDB, Saka, and Walker of the "rotation-prone" players are likely to start, then our optimal team would look like this:
Expected points: 87.3
I'll probably officially select the 2nd option to stay consistent with my strategy, but if you feel like I am being overly pessimistic then let me know! The following are some broad points from this week's projections:
  • Aubameyang seems like the most solid option this week; he's head and shoulders above other players who are very unlikely to face rotation. He may also be an excellent triple-captaincy candidate for those who are still holding the chip.
  • There are many viable midfield punts this week, including Sterling and Mahrez, who should score highly even if they are rested for one match. Pépé is also projected to be among the top scorers. A defensive punt on Walker could also turn out rather well.
  • Liverpool assets should not be underestimated. Bournemouth are considered the 4th worst side in the league at defending away from home; surely it's time for Liverpool's poor streak to end? If the KDB injury causes him to get reduced minutes, those who don't own Auba could consider captaining Salah this week.
  • Jaime Vardy is projected to return this week against what is considered by the algorithm the current worst defence in the league. While he is worth selling for Auba, he is not a bad option to hold either.
Here are the projected scores of the players not in the above table:
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.....10.21 Mohamed Salah.................9.17 Sadio Mané....................8.13 Nicolas Pépé..................8.12 Roberto Firmino...............7.55 Benjamin Mendy................6.94 Trent Alexander-Arnold........6.70 Nicolás Otamendi..............6.49 Jamie Vardy...................6.31 Mesut Özil....................6.08 Andrew Robertson..............6.05 Raúl Jiménez..................5.98 Danny Ings....................5.30 Ederson.......................5.28 Shkodran Mustafi..............5.20 Harvey Barnes.................5.06 Ryan Bertrand.................5.05 Oliver McBurnie...............5.04 Dani Ceballos.................4.95 Michail Antonio...............4.94 Rodrigo Hernandez.............4.94 Matt Doherty..................4.90 Diogo Jota....................4.82 Chris Wood....................4.80 Fernandinho...................4.79 Marcos Alonso.................4.78 Ayoze Pérez...................4.77 Olivier Giroud................4.68 Enda Stevens..................4.62 Bamidele Alli.................4.53 César Azpilicueta.............4.51 Pedro Rodríguez Ledesma.......4.51 Virgil van Dijk...............4.47 Vicente Guaita................4.43 Bernd Leno....................4.40 Alex McCarthy.................4.38 Patrick van Aanholt...........4.38 Shane Long....................4.36 Jack Stephens.................4.33 David Luiz....................4.28 Reece James...................4.27 Alisson Ramses Becker.........4.25 Jack O'Connell................4.25 Sofiane Boufal................4.24 Mason Mount...................4.20 Dennis Praet..................4.19 James Maddison................4.16 Granit Xhaka..................4.12 Jan Bednarek..................4.11 Bruno Fernandes...............4.05 Ross Barkley..................4.03 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.......4.01 Ben Foster....................3.95 Steven Bergwijn...............3.93 Jarrod Bowen..................3.91 Dean Henderson................3.91 Gary Cahill...................3.90 Lucas Moura...................3.86 Jay Rodriguez.................3.86 Ricardo Pereira...............3.83 Ismaïla Sarr..................3.80 James Ward-Prowse.............3.79 Jack Grealish.................3.76 John Egan.....................3.72 Scott Dann....................3.68 Moussa Djenepo................3.64 Neal Maupay...................3.64 John Fleck....................3.63 Christian Benteke.............3.63 Romain Saïss..................3.62 Carl Walker-Peters............3.62 Richarlison de Andrade........3.61 Teemu Pukki...................3.57 Chris Basham..................3.55 Anthony Martial...............3.55 Héctor Bellerín...............3.54 Anwar El Ghazi................3.51 Benjamin Chilwell.............3.50 Joel Ward.....................3.50 Mbwana Samatta................3.47 Emiliano Buendía..............3.45 Fikayo Tomori.................3.44 George Baldock................3.44 João Filipe Moutinho..........3.42 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.........3.41 Joseph Gomez..................3.40 Aaron Mooy....................3.40 Dwight McNeil.................3.36 Dominic Calvert-Lewin.........3.33 Jonny Evans...................3.28 Willy Boly....................3.26 Oliver Norwood................3.25 Robert Snodgrass..............3.24 Billy Sharp...................3.23 Francisco Femenía Far.........3.22 Wilfried Zaha.................3.21 Leandro Trossard..............3.21 Christian Kabasele............3.21 Çaglar Söyüncü................3.21 Serge Aurier..................3.19 Abdoulaye Doucouré............3.19 Kasper Schmeichel.............3.19 Troy Deeney...................3.18 Adam Masina...................3.15 Pablo Fornals.................3.11 Mateo Kovacic.................3.09 James McArthur................3.02 Ashley Westwood...............3.01 Nick Pope.....................3.00 Andreas Christensen...........3.00 Allan Saint-Maximin...........2.97 Jordan Ayew...................2.96 Georginio Wijnaldum...........2.95 Craig Cathcart................2.94 Daniel James..................2.94 Jonjo Shelvey.................2.91 Conor Coady...................2.90 Miguel Almirón................2.90 Todd Cantwell.................2.88 Leander Dendoncker............2.87 Willy Caballero...............2.86 Frederico Rodrigues...........2.85 Luka Milivojevic..............2.84 Solomon March.................2.83 Rúben Vinagre.................2.81 Mark Noble....................2.80 Gylfi Sigurdsson..............2.80 Ondrej Duda...................2.79 Paulo Gazzaniga...............2.77 Will Hughes...................2.76 Theo Walcott..................2.75 Joshua King...................2.74 Ryan Fraser...................2.72 Rúben Neves...................2.63 Joelinton.....................2.63 Jeff Hendrick.................2.61 Roberto Pereyra...............2.61 Fabinho.......................2.61 Jack Cork.....................2.58 Rui Patrício..................2.58 Douglas Luiz..................2.55 Callum Wilson.................2.55 Isaac Hayden..................2.48 Etienne Capoue................2.46 Davy Pröpper..................2.46 James Tarkowski...............2.45 Davinson Sánchez..............2.41 Giovani Lo Celso..............2.41 Eric Dier.....................2.40 Sander Berge..................2.39 Declan Rice...................2.39 James McCarthy................2.36 Kenny McLean..................2.35 Ben Davies....................2.33 Nemanja Matic.................2.32 Alexander Tettey..............2.19 Ben Mee.......................2.18 Charlie Taylor................2.18 Philip Billing................2.15 Yves Bissouma.................2.15 Marvelous Nakamba.............2.11 Martin Dubravka...............2.09 Lewis Dunk....................2.08 Phil Bardsley.................2.08 Harry Maguire.................2.06 Harry Winks...................2.04 Japhet Tanganga...............2.03 Tom Davies....................1.99 Aaron Wan-Bissaka.............1.98 Danny Rose....................1.94 Mathew Ryan...................1.92 Adam Webster..................1.91 André Gomes...................1.90 Matt Ritchie..................1.89 Lewis Cook....................1.89 Lucas Digne...................1.87 Dan Burn......................1.85 Adam Smith....................1.83 Jefferson Lerma...............1.83 Federico Fernández............1.79 Martín Montoya................1.77 David de Gea..................1.72 Tim Krul......................1.66 Matt Targett..................1.61 Yerry Mina....................1.61 José Reina....................1.61 Djibril Sidibé................1.59 Lukasz Fabianski..............1.57 Mason Holgate.................1.54 Luke Shaw.....................1.54 Jamaal Lascelles..............1.52 Angelo Ogbonna................1.48 Jamal Lewis...................1.43 Jordan Pickford...............1.38 Aaron Cresswell...............1.38 Maximillian Aarons............1.36 Victor Lindelöf...............1.34 Ezri Konsa Ngoyo..............1.32 Kortney Hause.................1.29 Tyrone Mings..................1.29 Ben Godfrey...................1.28 Brandon Williams..............1.24 Issa Diop.....................1.20 Javier Manquillo..............1.20 Grant Hanley..................1.16 Frédéric Guilbert.............1.08 Pablo Zabaleta................1.06 Nathan Akê....................0.32 Jack Stacey...................0.05 Aaron Ramsdale................-0.17 Simon Francis.................-0.5 
Thanks for reading; best of luck in the week to come.
submitted by blubbersassafras to FantasyPL [link] [comments]


2020.02.21 20:52 blubbersassafras The xGorithm: GW26: 52 points + GW27 points projection/analysis

The xGorithm: GW26: 52 points + GW27 points projection/analysis
Hi FantasyPL, I'm back again to share the projections from the expected stats and form-based forecasting algorithm that I am developing! The code for my project can be found on GitHub.

How does it work?

The algorithm uses several components to project goalscoring and assisting probabilities, as well as clean sheet odds and BPS data, to give an individual predicted score for each player. An iterative form-based process is used to calculate teams' relative attacking and defensive strength at home and away, along with each player's output relative to the rest of their team (again, weighted to favour players on good form), which are compiled to calculate each player's expected returns in a given fixture weighted to favour current form. Then, based on these returns and individual baseline BPS data, expected bonus points are added to players' expected points by deriving expected values from thousands of randomised simulations with FF Scout's predicted lineup.

GW26 Review

GW26: 52 points :/
Predictably, after bragging about the best GW rank of the season so far, it is followed by the worst, by far. The algorithm's gambles on double-Everton defence and triple-Sheffield United defence did not pay off whatsoever. Elsewhere, the team was template or underperforming.

GW27 Forecast

Expected Points: 79.4
Well, I wasn't expecting another 5-2-3 for the rest of the season, but when it rains, it pours. Again, the algorithm does not rate the value of any nailed midfielders highly besides the premium Liverpool assets. Salah is chosen as captain for the 5th week in a row (a spot that isn't likely to be taken away from him until GW30, barring any double GWs). Template picks are selected at the front of the field; less so at the back. PVA, AWB, Azpilicuate and Guaita each make their debuts. A
  • Which Wolves defensive assets should you go for? The xGorithm suggests Doherty or Saïss. Despite his horrible price tag, Doherty is expected to be excellent value in the next several weeks due to his incredible expected goals numbers. 0.32 goals are forecasted against Norwich as well as a 45% clean sheet probability. On the budget end, Saïss is expected to outscore Boly because of his slightly better attacking potential. However, the difference is smaller in games against teams with better defences, where BPS monsters such as Boly are more likely to thrive.
  • Despite a generally negative perception of Chelsea's defence, the full-backs could potentially become viable options. The algorithm rates them as the 5th strongest defence in the league currently, and Azpilicueta can be expected to get ~0.3 goal involvements (0.26 for James), whereas Tottenham's has been absolutely toothless of late, having now dropped out of the top 8 for offensive form. With Son out, this will get much, much worse; Spurs should be considered a grey/green fixture for defenders at this point.
  • With a good run of fixtures, could a Palace defensive punt be considered in the upcoming weeks? Probably not lol, but they are good options for this week.
Here are the raw points predictions:
Mohamed Salah.................9.70
Sadio Mané....................9.25
Roberto Firmino...............8.48
Trent Alexander-Arnold........6.98
Sergio Agüero.................6.53
Raúl Jiménez..................6.36
Andrew Robertson..............6.16
Riyad Mahrez..................5.75
Matt Doherty..................5.72
Kevin De Bruyne...............5.58
Danny Ings....................5.51
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.....5.15
James Tomkins.................5.03
César Azpilicueta.............5.01
Vicente Guaita................4.94
Harry Maguire.................4.92
Patrick van Aanholt...........4.91
Aaron Wan-Bissaka.............4.88
Richarlison de Andrade........4.84
Reece James...................4.83
Shane Long....................4.75
Pedro Rodríguez Ledesma.......4.73
Willian.......................4.69
Callum Hudson-Odoi............4.61
Virgil van Dijk...............4.58
Antonio Rüdiger...............4.54
Gary Cahill...................4.52
Diogo Jota....................4.46
Alisson Ramses Becker.........4.45
Romain Saïss..................4.45
Christian Benteke.............4.44
Adama Traoré..................4.44
Anthony Martial...............4.43
Dominic Calvert-Lewin.........4.41
David de Gea..................4.33
Jack Grealish.................4.32
Bruno Fernandes...............4.25
Willy Boly....................4.24
Oliver McBurnie...............4.23
Jonathan Castro Otto..........4.22
Nick Pope.....................4.20
Matej Vydra...................4.13
Nicolas Pépé..................4.11
Joel Ward.....................4.11
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.......4.06
Luke Shaw.....................4.04
Jamie Vardy...................4.00
Dwight McNeil.................3.95
Bernardo Silva................3.94
Anwar El Ghazi................3.93
Jay Rodriguez.................3.93
Ilkay Gündogan................3.93
Mbwana Samatta................3.88
James Tarkowski...............3.78
Aaron Mooy....................3.76
James Ward-Prowse.............3.76
Juan Mata.....................3.76
Michail Antonio...............3.75
Ryan Bertrand.................3.74
Enda Stevens..................3.73
Conor Coady...................3.72
Kyle Walker...................3.67
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte3.65
Ashley Westwood...............3.62
Joseph Gomez..................3.62
Wilfried Zaha.................3.62
Daniel James..................3.60
Andreas Christensen...........3.60
Eric Bailly...................3.59
James McArthur................3.58
Frederico Rodrigues...........3.57
Michy Batshuayi...............3.57
Benjamin Mendy................3.55
João Filipe Moutinho..........3.53
Gylfi Sigurdsson..............3.48
Ismaïla Sarr..................3.47
Lucas Digne...................3.46
Teemu Pukki...................3.45
John Fleck....................3.45
Ben Mee.......................3.44
Yan Valery....................3.42
Stuart Armstrong..............3.41
Jordan Ayew...................3.41
Harvey Barnes.................3.39
Ryan Fraser...................3.38
Ryan Bennett..................3.36
Martin Dubravka...............3.36
Rui Patrício..................3.34
Pascal Groß...................3.34
Phil Bardsley.................3.32
Edward Nketiah................3.31
Moussa Djenepo................3.29
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.........3.29
Jack O'Connell................3.28
Willy Caballero...............3.28
Bamidele Alli.................3.28
Charlie Taylor................3.28
Billy Sharp...................3.27
Dean Henderson................3.20
Ayoze Pérez...................3.20
Gerard Deulofeu...............3.20
Luka Milivojevic..............3.20
Mateo Kovacic.................3.17
Troy Deeney...................3.16
Dan Gosling...................3.15
Mesut Özil....................3.13
Oliver Norwood................3.12
Georginio Wijnaldum...........3.11
Jeff Hendrick.................3.11
Erik Lamela...................3.10
Glenn Murray..................3.08
Yerry Mina....................3.08
Djibril Sidibé................3.06
Callum Wilson.................3.05
Seamus Coleman................3.04
Miguel Almirón................3.03
Jack Stephens.................3.02
Mason Holgate.................3.02
Aymeric Laporte...............3.02
James Maddison................3.02
Jack Cork.....................2.98
Harry Wilson..................2.97
Allan Saint-Maximin...........2.96
Todd Cantwell.................2.94
John Egan.....................2.94
Federico Fernández............2.92
Lucas Moura...................2.91
Abdoulaye Doucouré............2.88
Alex McCarthy.................2.83
Rúben Neves...................2.82
Douglas Luiz..................2.80
Chris Basham..................2.77
Lucas Rupp....................2.76
Jan Bednarek..................2.72
Fabinho.......................2.71
Steven Alzate.................2.70
Joelinton.....................2.69
George Baldock................2.67
Ederson.......................2.67
Solomon March.................2.67
Fabian Schär..................2.67
Sean Longstaff................2.67
Robert Snodgrass..............2.66
Davy Pröpper..................2.66
Jamaal Lascelles..............2.65
Youri Tielemans...............2.63
James McCarthy................2.62
Ondrej Duda...................2.60
Nathan Akê....................2.59
Isaac Hayden..................2.58
Steven Bergwijn...............2.58
Will Hughes...................2.56
Shkodran Mustafi..............2.55
Nemanja Matic.................2.54
Dani Ceballos.................2.52
Rodrigo Hernandez.............2.51
Jordan Pickford...............2.50
Ben Foster....................2.49
Philip Billing................2.45
Tomas Soucek..................2.45
Mark Noble....................2.42
Fernandinho...................2.41
Bukayo Saka...................2.41
Matt Targett..................2.38
Nabil Bentaleb................2.38
Kenny McLean..................2.32
Lewis Dunk....................2.32
Sander Berge..................2.32
Etienne Capoue................2.30
Marvelous Nakamba.............2.26
Adam Smith....................2.21
Bernd Leno....................2.19
Mathew Ryan...................2.17
Alexander Tettey..............2.17
Giovani Lo Celso..............2.15
Fabian Delph..................2.14
Hugo Lloris...................2.13
Dan Burn......................2.12
Declan Rice...................2.12
Jefferson Lerma...............2.10
Adam Webster..................2.09
David Luiz....................2.08
Granit Xhaka..................2.06
Martín Montoya................2.05
Jorginho......................2.04
Mbwana Samatta................2.00
Aaron Ramsdale................1.97
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo..............1.88
Harry Winks...................1.88
Tyrone Mings..................1.85
Kortney Hause.................1.84
Adrian Mariappa...............1.79
Adam Masina...................1.77
Serge Aurier..................1.77
Craig Dawson..................1.72
Tim Krul......................1.72
Héctor Bellerín...............1.69
Craig Cathcart................1.65
Diego Rico....................1.61
Frédéric Guilbert.............1.59
Jamal Lewis...................1.50
Maximillian Aarons............1.47
José Reina....................1.42
Simon Francis.................1.39
Ben Godfrey...................1.37
Grant Hanley..................1.34
Toby Alderweireld.............1.19
Davinson Sánchez..............1.16
Ricardo Pereira...............1.15
Ben Davies....................1.07
Benjamin Chilwell.............1.00
Kasper Schmeichel.............0.86
Jonny Evans...................0.86
Danny Rose....................0.85
Çaglar Söyüncü................0.80
Lukasz Fabianski..............-0.36
Angelo Ogbonna................-0.36
Aaron Cresswell...............-0.45
Arthur Masuaku................-0.58
Issa Diop.....................-0.61
Pablo Zabaleta................-0.7

The xGorithm's Other GW27 Predictions

Chelsea 2 - 0 Tottenham (Most likely result: Chelsea win 65%)
Burnley 1 - 0 Bournemouth (Most likely result: Burnley win 57%)
Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Newcastle (Most likely result: Crystal Palace win 50%)
Sheffield United 1 - 1 Brighton (Most likely result: Sheffield United win 51%)
Southampton 1 - 0 Aston Villa (Most likely result: Southampton win 51%)
Leicester 1 - 2 Man City (Most likely result: Man City win 69%)
Man United 1 - 0 Watford (Most likely result: Man United win 60%)
Wolves 1 - 0 Norwich (Most likely result: Wolves win 65%)
Arsenal 1 - 1 Everton (Most likely result: Everton win 45%)
Liverpool 3 - 0 West Ham (Most likely result: Liverpool win 91%)
submitted by blubbersassafras to FantasyPL [link] [comments]


2020.02.05 18:52 blubbersassafras The xGorithm: GW25: 87 points + GW26 points projection/analysis

The xGorithm: GW25: 87 points + GW26 points projection/analysis
Hi FantasyPL, I'm back again to share the projections from the expected stats and form-based forecasting algorithm that I am developing! The code for my project can be found on GitHub.

How does it work?

The algorithm uses several components to project goalscoring and assisting probabilities, as well as clean sheet odds and BPS data, to give an individual predicted score for each player. An iterative form-based process is used to calculate teams' relative attacking and defensive strength at home and away, along with each player's output relative to the rest of their team (again, weighted to favour players on good form), which are compiled to calculate each player's expected returns in a given fixture weighted to favour current form. Then, based on these returns and individual baseline BPS data, expected bonus points are added to players' expected points by deriving expected values from thousands of randomised simulations with FF Scout's predicted lineup.

GW25 Review

GW25: 87 points
After a few weeks of underperforming the optimal team's xPoints, I have to attribute some of this week's impressive 15k ranking down to luck - namely the Aké goal which was totally unprecedented. Elsewhere, nearly a full house of clean sheets was well forecasted. I am stunned that Brighton managed to score 3 goals without Maupay, Trossard, or Mooy (only the latter two starting) being involved in a single one, as with Richarlison's lack of involvement, but all other differential assets performed as well or better than was expected.
The general trends of predictions made last week also aged very well (lots of blanks from premium assets with a low points spread across top players, that Aubameyang likely to blank against an on-form Burnley defence and an off-form Arsenal attack, and that Salah was the stand-out captain choice) with the exception of the Mahrez punt advice.

GW26 Forecast

Expected points: 74.7
The xGorithm opts for its first 5-2-3 lineup of the season so far (surely the rarest formation in FPL - ?), due to the lack of good-value, nailed-on midfielders expected to return points. Aubameyang should prove a better prospect this week, with Newcastle's expected defensive stats away from home looking decidedly awful. All the other midfield and forward picks seem to speak for themselves. The eggs-in-basket defensive strategy again comes as no surprise for the fearless machine - SHU and EVE are given a 48% and 51% clean sheet probability respectively, with 46% for Liverpool.
It is worth noting that if I did allow rotation/rest-prone players to be selected the lineup would be starkly different - a 4-3-3 involving Aguero (C), Mahrez and saving cash with Martinelli. I expect this to be the week where rotation will play the most significant role in either crushing or lifting the riskier players among us.
  • Aguero is the standout captaincy option for this GW - if he is not to be rested. His expected goals forecast is at a record high for the algorithm (barring DGW24) of 1.43(!) which by assuming a Poisson distribution gives an implied anytime goalscorer probability of 76% (even higher than the bookies who currently have him down at 73%). Salah is also unlikely to misfire, with 0.99 expected goals and 0.6 expected assists (a 79.6% chance of not blanking). That said, one could expect him to take fewer shots than he has for the last several matches with Mané back in the squad.
  • Son's figures should be taken with a grain of salt, due to his tendency to overperform the xG model to an unusual extent (nearly +40% over his career). If we adjust for this, then his expected points increase to 6.26.
  • Ings is the best option in his price range but the algorithm doesn't expect too much with Burnley on good defensive form and the Saints consistently performing worse at home than away this season. 0.44 goals and 0.06 assists are expected from him.
Here are the raw points forecasts:
Sergio Agüero.................9.60
Mohamed Salah.................9.16
Riyad Mahrez..................8.04
Sadio Mané....................7.92
Kevin De Bruyne...............7.60
Roberto Firmino...............7.33
David Silva...................6.27
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.....6.07
Trent Alexander-Arnold........6.01
Gabriel Martinelli............5.55
Andrew Robertson..............5.44
Enda Stevens..................5.37
Lucas Digne...................5.28
Jamie Vardy...................5.26
Bernardo Silva................5.21
Heung-Min Son.................5.21
Kyle Walker...................4.99
Richarlison de Andrade........4.96
Djibril Sidibé................4.88
Yerry Mina....................4.82
Mason Holgate.................4.78
Jack O'Connell................4.78
Benjamin Mendy................4.67
Lys Mousset...................4.67
Dean Henderson................4.66
Tammy Abraham.................4.65
Oliver McBurnie...............4.60
Danny Ings....................4.55
Bamidele Alli.................4.54
Willian.......................4.53
Raúl Jiménez..................4.48
Nicolás Otamendi..............4.45
Jordan Pickford...............4.44
Chris Wood....................4.40
Harvey Barnes.................4.35
Alexandre Lacazette...........4.33
John Egan.....................4.33
Bernd Leno....................4.27
Callum Hudson-Odoi............4.26
César Azpilicueta.............4.24
Chris Basham..................4.16
Alisson Ramses Becker.........4.13
Virgil van Dijk...............4.12
Reece James...................4.11
Jack Grealish.................4.11
David Luiz....................4.11
Lewis Dunk....................4.10
Dominic Calvert-Lewin.........4.08
George Baldock................4.05
Mathew Ryan...................4.04
Antonio Rüdiger...............4.01
Lucas Moura...................3.98
Shkodran Mustafi..............3.98
Bernardo Fernandes............3.97
John Fleck....................3.92
Ayoze Pérez...................3.90
Serge Aurier..................3.90
Aaron Mooy....................3.87
Leandro Trossard..............3.86
Anwar El Ghazi................3.86
Alex Iwobi....................3.85
Nathan Redmond................3.83
Shane Long....................3.83
Adam Webster..................3.83
Theo Walcott..................3.82
James Maddison................3.82
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.......3.75
Pascal Groß...................3.74
Martín Montoya................3.73
Troy Deeney...................3.70
Jordan Henderson..............3.67
Gerard Deulofeu...............3.64
Gylfi Sigurdsson..............3.64
Michail Antonio...............3.64
Héctor Bellerín...............3.62
Mesut Özil....................3.54
Diogo Jota....................3.53
Ederson.......................3.50
Oliver Norwood................3.45
Adama Traoré..................3.44
Ricardo Pereira...............3.41
Nick Pope.....................3.39
Anthony Martial...............3.37
Hugo Lloris...................3.37
Ryan Bertrand.................3.36
N'Golo Kanté..................3.36
Teemu Pukki...................3.36
James Ward-Prowse.............3.35
Glenn Murray..................3.35
Steven Bergwijn...............3.30
Joseph Gomez..................3.27
Dwight McNeil.................3.26
Benjamin Chilwell.............3.24
Miguel Almirón................3.22
Matt Doherty..................3.22
Youri Tielemans...............3.18
Emiliano Buendía..............3.18
Alex McCarthy.................3.08
Bruno Fernandes...............3.08
Kepa Arrizabalaga.............3.08
Tomas Soucek..................3.05
Kasper Schmeichel.............3.05
Jack Stephens.................3.04
Abdoulaye Doucouré............3.03
Jonny Evans...................3.01
Andreas Pereira...............3.01
Ben Foster....................3.00
Andreas Christensen...........3.00
Ashley Westwood...............2.99
Georginio Wijnaldum...........2.99
Moussa Djenepo................2.97
Allan Saint-Maximin...........2.96
Davy Pröpper..................2.92
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.........2.91
Matt Targett..................2.91
Çaglar Söyüncü................2.90
Ryan Fraser...................2.90
Rodrigo Hernandez.............2.89
Bukayo Saka...................2.87
Daniel James..................2.87
Joelinton.....................2.87
Jan Bednarek..................2.85
Mateo Kovacic.................2.85
Dan Gosling...................2.84
James Tarkowski...............2.84
João Filipe Moutinho..........2.83
Dominic Solanke...............2.83
Jay Rodriguez.................2.80
Toby Alderweireld.............2.77
Jordan Ayew...................2.77
Roberto Pereyra...............2.76
Todd Cantwell.................2.74
Sébastien Haller..............2.73
Wilfried Zaha.................2.73
Frederico Rodrigues...........2.72
James McArthur................2.71
Davinson Sánchez..............2.70
Tom Davies....................2.69
Douglas Luiz..................2.67
Matteo Guendouzi..............2.67
Wilfred Ndidi.................2.67
Jack Cork.....................2.67
Giovani Lo Celso..............2.66
Ben Mee.......................2.65
Fernandinho...................2.64
Jeff Hendrick.................2.64
Harry Wilson..................2.62
Cheikhou Kouyaté..............2.58
Isaac Hayden..................2.57
Ondrej Duda...................2.56
Carl Walker-Peters............2.55
Japhet Tanganga...............2.55
Matthew Lowton................2.54
Nabil Bentaleb................2.52
Callum Wilson.................2.51
Charlie Taylor................2.50
Nathaniel Chalobah............2.46
Andros Townsend...............2.46
Granit Xhaka..................2.43
Luka Milivojevic..............2.42
Sander Berge..................2.41
Mark Noble....................2.41
Dale Stephens.................2.40
Adrian Mariappa...............2.38
Rúben Neves...................2.37
Willy Boly....................2.36
Adam Masina...................2.36
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo..............2.34
Etienne Capoue................2.33
Tyrone Mings..................2.31
Romain Saïss..................2.31
Marvelous Nakamba.............2.30
Craig Dawson..................2.30
Vicente Guaita................2.28
Kortney Hause.................2.26
Kenny McLean..................2.22
Philip Billing................2.21
Jonathan Castro Otto..........2.20
James Tomkins.................2.18
Patrick van Aanholt...........2.16
Craig Cathcart................2.16
Nemanja Matic.................2.15
Martin Dubravka...............2.15
Harry Winks...................2.14
Frédéric Guilbert.............2.12
Declan Rice...................2.10
Adam Smith....................2.07
Jorginho......................2.06
Federico Fernández............2.06
Harry Maguire.................2.04
Aaron Wan-Bissaka.............2.03
Alexander Tettey..............2.02
Mbwana Samatta................2.00
Matt Ritchie..................1.99
Conor Coady...................1.98
Gary Cahill...................1.96
Jefferson Lerma...............1.93
Nathan Akê....................1.92
José Reina....................1.82
DeAndre Yedlin................1.80
Rui Patrício..................1.78
Jamaal Lascelles..............1.76
Joel Ward.....................1.70
David de Gea..................1.69
Ciaran Clark..................1.60
Aaron Ramsdale................1.58
Victor Lindelöf...............1.43
Luke Shaw.....................1.42
Diego Rico....................1.18
Simon Francis.................1.12
Sam Byram.....................0.32
Maximillian Aarons............0.20
Tim Krul......................0.17
Grant Hanley..................0.07
Christoph Zimmermann..........-0.01
Lukasz Fabianski..............-0.46
Angelo Ogbonna................-0.56
Aaron Cresswell...............-0.67
Arthur Masuaku................-0.68
Issa Diop.....................-0.83
Ryan Fredericks...............-0.83
submitted by blubbersassafras to FantasyPL [link] [comments]


2020.01.13 18:49 whatssocomplicated NPR parroting FDA fearmongering

Copy and pasted to remove a vendor reference. Not terrible article, but they're still parroting the lies. It's pretty disingenuous to offer up the story of one kid that clearly had major substance abuse problems as the "other side".
Side comment / vent -- I feel censoring regular mainstream news stories just because it breaks the no vendor rule is nuts. If anything the story should be allowed but comments locked.

The Kratom Debate: Helpful Herb Or Dangerous Drug?

Americans know the dangers of drugs such as morphine and heroin. But what about a supplement that acts in the brain a bit like an opiate and is available in many places to kids — even from vending machines.

Kratom, an herb that's abundant, legal in most states and potentially dangerous, is the subject of an ongoing debate over its risks and benefits.

Usually, the leaf, which comes from a tropical Southeast Asian tree, is chewed, brewed or crushed into a bitter green powder. The chemicals in the herb interact with different types of receptors in the brain — some that respond to opioids, and others to stimulants. Often sold in the U.S. in a processed form — as pills, capsules or extracts — a small amount of kratom can perk you up, while a large dose has a sedative effect.

Some people who have struggled with an opioid addiction and switched to kratom swear the substance salvaged their health, livelihood and relationships.

But the federal Food and Drug Administration and the Drug Enforcement Administration worry that kratom carries the risk of physical and psychological dependency and, in some people, addiction. The FDA warns consumers not to use kratom, and the DEA threatened to prohibit kratom's sale and use in the U.S. (outside of research) in 2016; advocates and lawmakers subsequently pushed back, and the stricter scheduling of kratom that would have prompted that sort of ban never occurred. These days, the DEA lists it as a drug of concern.

Linda Kline, 33, based in Reno, Nev., sells kratom for a living. She says her several stores throughout the West have given her a new purpose in life. And while she herself doesn't have an opioid dependency, she credits kratom with turning around her mental health.

"I went from feeling desperate and hopeless to finding an alternative where I had full control over how I felt," she says.

She used to be paralyzed by anxiety and panic attacks. When her insurance carrier threatened to cut her Prozac prescription, she felt desperate. A friend suggested kratom, so she picked some up at a smoke shop.

"It almost feels like you're having just a little glass of wine," Kline says. "It's really relaxing. There's no melting of the walls."

The new habit cost about $6 a day — less than a glass of wine or fancy cup of coffee. But Kline says she couldn't always find a high-quality supply. The FDA has recalled dozens of salmonella-tainted products sold online or in convenience stores. The agency has also found toxic heavy metals in kratom supplements.

That's one reason Kline started her own chic boutiques, \redacted*, devoted exclusively to kratom products that, she says, are all lab tested to ensure purity. She just opened her fifth location in less than two years. The shops offer 15 kratom strains at outlets in California, Idaho and Nevada.*

Though Kline's website has a disclaimer that her products have not been evaluated by the FDA and "are not intended to cure, treat or prevent any disease/illness," some of her clients' online Yelp reviews claim kratom has dramatically relieved their chronic pain, insomnia, restless legs syndrome and more.

Potential dangers

Glowing reviews like that haunt Mateo Martinez.

"My brother believed the marketing of kratom — that it was a natural herbal supplement that could provide you with the same benefits of an opioid without the risks," Mateo says.

Mateo's younger brother, Marco, struggled with an opioid addiction in high school. Mateo describes Marco as a charismatic, creative teen, passionate about video games, cartoons and anime. Marco got hooked on painkillers, Mateo says, after his dentist pulled his wisdom teeth.

"He was using them in a way that wasn't just for treating pain," Mateo says.

Email receipts show Marco used bitcoin to also buy Vicodin and fentanyl on the dark web.

Eventually Marco wanted to kick his opioid addiction and saw testimonials on YouTube and Reddit that promised that kratom could be a way out. Soon Marco was popping kratom capsules multiple times a day.

During his freshman year at the University of California, Davis, the 19-year-old started hyperventilating regularly. The incidents worsened, becoming seizure-like episodes and ending in trips to the emergency room. During each hospitalization, the doctors were stumped. No one thought to test for kratom.

Marco died in his UC Davis dorm in February 2018, late on a Sunday night. The toxicology report listed "acute mitragynine intoxication" — a chemical constituent of kratom — as the cause of death.

"I think kratom needs to come with a much more serious caution that it is not harmless," Mateo says. "I'm very heartbroken."

In a recent 18-month period, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 90 kratom overdoses, although most involved a combination of other substances too.

Slim science, so far

"The data to support either the benefits or the harms for kratom is really, really poor," says C. Michael White, head of the Department of Pharmacy Practice at the University of Connecticut. "A lot of the information we have comes from single-case reports."

FDA Orders An Unprecedented Recall After Kratom Company Ignored Its Requests
THE TWO-WAY
FDA Orders An Unprecedented Recall After Kratom Company Ignored Its Requests
White says that animal studies suggest kratom could be an effective pain reliever, but the collection of human data has only just begun. He says scientists need to conduct a lot more research before the appropriate level of regulation is clear. White recently argued in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy that the safest place for kratom is behind pharmacy counters, for adults only, but with no prescription required.

McClain Haddow, spokesperson for the American Kratom Association, agrees that the product should be sold only to people over age 18.

"We would like vendors to register their product with the FDA and get a chemical analysis from a certified lab to insure the only ingredient is the naturally occurring alkaloid in the kratom plant," Haddow says. "Some manufacturers are spiking products with fentanyl, heroin or morphine to give users a high."

Dr. Scott Steiger, deputy medical director of the opiate treatment outpatient program at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, says he doesn't know how to advise patients who want to use kratom.

"I tell them I just don't know enough on the basis of science to tell them whether it's a great idea or not," says Steiger, who is also an associate clinical professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

The DEA describes kratom as an addictive substance that causes hallucinations, delusion and confusion.

"I have seen that people who use kratom end up having a very hard time stopping the use of it," says Steiger.

His patients report withdrawal symptoms such as nausea, sweats, aches and pains, loose stool, tearing and dysphoria. There is growing concern about kratom's effects on the heart and liver.

Steiger emphasizes that doctors have evidence-based treatments like buprenorphine and methadone to help people with an opioid addiction. He doesn't recommend self-medicating with kratom until more research is available.

"We just don't know enough about this chemical and the long-term use of it to know whether experimenting would lead to complications," Steiger says.
submitted by whatssocomplicated to kratom [link] [comments]


2020.01.04 22:31 blubbersassafras Which players are BPS monsters? An Analysis of the Best Players for Baseline BPS so far this Season

Hi everyone - as part of my research in creating a mathematical model for FPL (more information can be found here), I have been creating a way of predictively modelling the BPS system. Part of this process is to calculate the baseline BPS for all players - that is the mean (and standard deviation) of BPS that players score minus the points that they directly get for things that affect their points in FPL. For this, I have focussed on goals, assists and clean sheets, though I can incorporate other factors such as saves, penalty saves, yellow cards and red cards if anyone would be interested in seeing the data on that.
For those who don't know, this baseline score is calculated by FPL largely through passing accuracy and volume, crosses, chance creation, tackles, dribbles. The system punishes players who miss chances, make errors, lose possession or get caught offside etc.
This type of analysis is very useful in predicting which players will score more points than their underlying statistics for attacking and defensive returns suggests, so I thought some might be interested in seeing the results, which I will split into different foci. I have not written about midfielders and attackers since attacking FPL assets essentially rely on their attacking output to score bonus points.
My code can be accessed here.

1. Liverpool Assets

The following are the mean baseline BPS scores for every player in the Liverpool squad who has played at least 60 mins of at least one game this season:
Alisson Ramses Becker.........17.6
Andrew Robertson..............16.2
Dejan Lovren..................16.0
Trent Alexander-Arnold........15.9
Joel Matip....................15.0
Virgil van Dijk...............14.5
Joseph Gomez..................14.0
Adrián........................13.9
Divock Origi..................10.0
Naby Keita....................9.5
Roberto Firmino...............8.5
Jordan Henderson..............7.7
Georginio Wijnaldum...........7.5
James Milner..................5.2
Adam Lallana..................4.0
Sadio Mané....................3.2
Xherdan Shaqiri...............3.0
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.......2.0
Mohamed Salah.................-0.4
We see a lot of talk of VVD, and more recently Gomez, being 'BPS machines' since many will have noticed he's broadly been keeping up with Roberson this season. However, the stats say otherwise: the volume of Robertson's dribbles and crosses actually put him ahead of all the other defensive assets, so should be expected in the future to outscore VVD and Gomez by even more than his attacking returns suggest! This is evidence that TAA-Robbo is the optimal defensive double-up for DGW24 and afterwards. HOWEVER, the standard deviation of Van Dijk's baseline scores is just 2.79, which is remarkably low, whereas Robertson's is 5.45 and Gomez's 3.84, which implies that Van Dijk performs more consistently regardless of the strength of the opponent (arguably this is irrelevant as Liverpool's fixtures are excellent). However, it should be noted that all of Liverpool's defensive assets have excellent baseline bonus scores compared to the mean for defenders, which sits at 12.5.
On the attacking side of things, it should not come as a surprise that Mané is much the better BPS scorer than Salah since Salah has always taken an incredibly high number of shots and this season has been the less creative of the two this season. Salah's baseline stats are actually the worst of any regular starter in the game!

2. Goalkeepers

Again, listed are all goalkeepers who this season have played at least 60 minutes in at least one game this season.
Lukasz Fabianski..............23.1
Michael McGovern..............23.0
Mathew Ryan...................21.4
Wayne Hennessey...............21.0
Hugo Lloris...................20.5
Claudio Bravo.................20.0
David Martin..................19.5
Martin Dubravka...............19.2
Bernd Leno....................19.2
Nick Pope.....................19.1
Vicente Guaita................19.1
Ben Foster....................19.1
Tim Krul......................18.9
Kasper Schmeichel.............18.4
Aaron Ramsdale................18.2
Dean Henderson................17.8
Tom Heaton....................17.8
Alisson Ramses Becker.........17.6
Roberto Jimenez Gago..........17.6
Jordan Pickford...............17.1
Angus Gunn....................16.6
Paulo Gazzaniga...............15.9
Kepa Arrizabalaga.............15.7
Alex McCarthy.................15.4
David de Gea..................14.8
Adrián........................13.9
Ørjan Nyland..................13.0
Simon Moore...................9.0
What strikes me most about these results is the lack of discernible correlation between the strength of a team's defence and the number of BPS that they tend to score, or even the number of BPS that two goalkeepers score when they play behind the same defence! Lloris, for example, tended to score 5 points better than Gazzaniga. I think it really does depend on the individual quality of the goalkeeper in relation to racking up BPS.

3. Defenders

Here is the list of the 20 best defensive assets by baseline BPS:
Benjamin Mendy................18.0
Phil Jagielka.................18.0
João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo.....17.2
Reece James...................17.2
Ahmed El Mohamady.............16.7
Angeliño......................16.5
Andrew Robertson..............16.2
Serge Aurier..................16.2
Çaglar Söyüncü................16.2
Dejan Lovren..................16.0
Trent Alexander-Arnold........15.9
John Stones...................15.7
Willy Boly....................15.6
Jan Vertonghen................15.6
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos...15.6
Ben Godfrey...................15.4
Oleksandr Zinchenko...........15.3
Sead Kolasinac................15.2
Nathan Akê....................15.2
Bernardo Fernandes............15.0
What I find most striking reading down is how brilliantly the Man City full-backs perform (besides Kyle Walker); they clearly rack up incredible pass, cross, and chance creation numbers. In fact, all City defenders besides Walker and (predictably) Otamendi perform brilliantly in the BPS system, with Laporte and Garcia scoring means of 14.7 and 15 respectively. This is symptomatic of City's extreme possession-based style of play. Also notable is the appearance of Bernardo on this list (who took the place of injured Dan Burn in Brighton). He is clearly one to watch out for.

Full List of mean baseline BPS scores

Lukasz Fabianski..............23.1
Michael McGovern..............23.0
Mathew Ryan...................21.4
Wayne Hennessey...............21.0
Hugo Lloris...................20.5
Claudio Bravo.................20.0
David Martin..................19.5
Bernd Leno....................19.2
Martin Dubravka...............19.2
Nick Pope.....................19.1
Vicente Guaita................19.1
Ben Foster....................19.1
Tim Krul......................18.9
Kasper Schmeichel.............18.4
Aaron Ramsdale................18.2
Phil Jagielka.................18.0
Benjamin Mendy................18.0
Tom Heaton....................17.8
Dean Henderson................17.8
Alisson Ramses Becker.........17.6
Roberto Jimenez Gago..........17.6
Reece James...................17.2
João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo.....17.2
Jordan Pickford...............17.1
Ahmed El Mohamady.............16.7
Angus Gunn....................16.6
Angeliño......................16.5
Andrew Robertson..............16.2
Serge Aurier..................16.2
Çaglar Söyüncü................16.2
Dejan Lovren..................16.0
Trent Alexander-Arnold........15.9
Paulo Gazzaniga...............15.9
John Stones...................15.7
Kepa Arrizabalaga.............15.7
Willy Boly....................15.6
Jan Vertonghen................15.6
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos...15.6
Ben Godfrey...................15.4
Alex McCarthy.................15.4
Oleksandr Zinchenko...........15.3
Nathan Akê....................15.2
Sead Kolasinac................15.2
Bernardo Fernandes............15.0
Joel Matip....................15.0
Charlie Daniels...............15.0
Eric Garcia...................15.0
Matt Targett..................14.9
David de Gea..................14.8
Lewis Dunk....................14.8
Mamadou Sakho.................14.8
Mateo Kovacic.................14.7
Aaron Wan-Bissaka.............14.7
Jannik Vestergaard............14.7
Djibril Sidibé................14.7
Aymeric Laporte...............14.7
Andreas Christensen...........14.6
Jonny Evans...................14.6
Fikayo Tomori.................14.5
Virgil van Dijk...............14.5
Toby Alderweireld.............14.5
Tyrone Mings..................14.5
Marvelous Nakamba.............14.4
Davinson Sánchez..............14.4
Adam Webster..................14.2
Luke Shaw.....................14.2
Ricardo Pereira...............14.1
Ainsley Maitland-Niles........14.1
Joseph Gomez..................14.0
Simon Francis.................14.0
Jack Simpson..................14.0
Arthur Masuaku................14.0
Nacho Monreal.................14.0
Giovani Lo Celso..............14.0
Adrián........................13.9
Ibrahim Amadou................13.9
César Azpilicueta.............13.5
Gary Cahill...................13.5
Chris Mepham..................13.3
Emiliano Buendía..............13.3
Antonio Rüdiger...............13.2
Steve Cook....................13.2
Lucas Digne...................13.2
Marcos Alonso.................13.1
Kurt Zouma....................13.1
Seamus Coleman................13.1
Conor Coady...................13.1
Harry Maguire.................13.1
Francisco Femenía Far.........13.1
Yerry Mina....................13.1
Ørjan Nyland..................13.0
Morgan Gibbs-White............13.0
Jorginho......................13.0
Kieran Tierney................13.0
Ryan Sessegnon................13.0
Erik Pieters..................12.9
Fabian Delph..................12.9
Benjamin Chilwell.............12.9
Jan Bednarek..................12.8
Victor Lindelöf...............12.8
Kyle Walker...................12.8
David Luiz....................12.8
Christoph Zimmermann..........12.8
Jack O'Connell................12.8
Sokratis Papastathopoulos.....12.8
Nicolás Otamendi..............12.7
Bjorn Engels..................12.6
Moritz Leitner................12.6
Daryl Janmaat.................12.6
João Filipe Moutinho..........12.6
Dan Burn......................12.6
Enda Stevens..................12.6
Mason Holgate.................12.5
Mason Greenwood...............12.5
Joel Ward.....................12.4
Matt Ritchie..................12.3
Jamal Lewis...................12.3
Craig Cathcart................12.3
Jack Stephens.................12.3
Michael Keane.................12.3
Diego Rico....................12.2
Martin Kelly..................12.2
James Tomkins.................12.2
James Tarkowski...............12.2
Patrick van Aanholt...........12.1
Danny Rose....................12.1
Frederico Rodrigues...........12.1
Leighton Baines...............12.0
Jack Stacey...................12.0
Nathaniel Chalobah............12.0
Jairo Riedewald...............12.0
Jetro Willems.................12.0
Matteo Guendouzi..............11.9
John Egan.....................11.8
Adam Smith....................11.8
Angelo Ogbonna................11.8
Matthew Lowton................11.8
Federico Fernández............11.7
Jamaal Lascelles..............11.7
Tom Cleverley.................11.7
Paul Dummett..................11.7
Ben Mee.......................11.7
Yves Bissouma.................11.7
Maximillian Aarons............11.7
James McCarthy................11.7
Cédric Soares.................11.6
Craig Dawson..................11.6
Adama Traoré..................11.6
Chris Basham..................11.6
Ashley Young..................11.6
Christian Kabasele............11.6
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo..............11.6
Harry Winks...................11.5
Shane Duffy...................11.5
Manuel Lanzini................11.5
Shkodran Mustafi..............11.5
Dani Ceballos.................11.5
Dale Stephens.................11.4
Rodrigo Hernandez.............11.4
John Lundstram................11.4
Declan Rice...................11.4
Neil Taylor...................11.3
Scott Dann....................11.3
Tanguy Ndombele...............11.3
Ryan Fredericks...............11.2
Riyad Mahrez..................11.2
Christian Fuchs...............11.2
Calum Chambers................11.2
Grant Hanley..................11.2
Ciaran Clark..................11.1
Mesut Özil....................11.1
Kevin De Bruyne...............11.1
Ezequiel Schelotto............11.0
Kortney Hause.................11.0
Frédéric Guilbert.............11.0
Ryan Bennett..................11.0
Jesús Vallejo Lázaro..........11.0
Junior Stanislas..............11.0
Pablo Zabaleta................11.0
Axel Tuanzebe.................11.0
Adrian Mariappa...............11.0
Wes Morgan....................11.0
Oriol Romeu Vidal.............10.9
Ilkay Gündogan................10.9
Fabian Schär..................10.8
Martín Montoya................10.8
Fabián Balbuena...............10.7
Jonathan Castro Otto..........10.7
Maya Yoshida..................10.7
Florian Lejeune...............10.7
Oliver Norwood................10.7
Max Kilman....................10.5
Lucas Torreira................10.5
Matt Doherty..................10.5
Tom Trybull...................10.5
Issa Diop.....................10.4
Willian.......................10.4
Emil Krafth...................10.4
Felipe Anderson...............10.2
Moussa Sissoko................10.2
Romain Saïss..................10.2
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.........10.2
Sam Byram.....................10.1
Alexander Tettey..............10.1
José Holebas..................10.1
Fernandinho...................10.1
Wilfred Ndidi.................10.1
Aaron Mooy....................10.0
Divock Origi..................10.0
John Fleck....................10.0
Aaron Cresswell...............10.0
Bernardo Silva................10.0
James Justin..................10.0
James Ward-Prowse.............9.9
Ryan Bertrand.................9.8
Jefferson Lerma...............9.7
Scott McTominay...............9.7
N'Golo Kanté..................9.6
Phil Bardsley.................9.6
Davy Pröpper..................9.6
Naby Keita....................9.5
George Baldock................9.5
Brandon Williams..............9.5
Hamza Choudhury...............9.5
Javier Manquillo..............9.5
Kenny McLean..................9.4
Pascal Groß...................9.3
Granit Xhaka..................9.3
Charlie Taylor................9.2
Philip Billing................9.2
Etienne Capoue................9.1
Steven Alzate.................9.0
Mario Vrancic.................9.0
Alex Iwobi....................9.0
Simon Moore...................9.0
Rob Holding...................9.0
Ben Davies....................9.0
Erik Lamela...................9.0
Rúben Neves...................8.8
Jonjo Shelvey.................8.7
Leandro Trossard..............8.7
Solomon March.................8.7
Héctor Bellerín...............8.7
Conor Hourihane...............8.6
DeAndre Yedlin................8.6
Roberto Firmino...............8.5
Jack Grealish.................8.5
Aaron Lennon..................8.5
John McGinn...................8.4
Rúben Vinagre.................8.3
Leander Dendoncker............8.2
Gylfi Sigurdsson..............8.2
Moussa Djenepo................8.2
Jürgen Locadia................8.0
Marcos Rojo...................8.0
Gerard Deulofeu...............8.0
Sung-yueng Ki.................8.0
James Maddison................7.9
Morgan Schneiderlin...........7.9
Christian Eriksen.............7.8
Jordan Henderson..............7.7
Todd Cantwell.................7.7
Yan Valery....................7.7
Callum Hudson-Odoi............7.7
Nathan Redmond................7.6
Luka Milivojevic..............7.5
Joseph Willock................7.5
Kelechi Iheanacho.............7.5
Georginio Wijnaldum...........7.5
Lewis Cook....................7.4
Youri Tielemans...............7.4
Paul Pogba....................7.4
Gabriel Martinelli............7.3
Bamidele Alli.................7.3
Nicolas Pépé..................7.2
Heung-Min Son.................7.1
Isaac Hayden..................7.1
Ashley Westwood...............7.1
Abdoulaye Doucouré............7.1
Henri Lansbury................7.0
Carlos Sánchez................7.0
Marc Albrighton...............7.0
Eric Dier.....................7.0
Mark Noble....................6.9
Raúl Jiménez..................6.7
Adam Masina...................6.6
James McArthur................6.6
Jack Cork.....................6.5
Pedro Rodríguez Ledesma.......6.5
Christian Benteke.............6.5
David Silva...................6.5
Mason Mount...................6.4
Joelinton.....................6.4
Dennis Praet..................6.4
André Filipe Tavares Gomes....6.3
Troy Deeney...................6.2
Matthew Longstaff.............6.2
Onel Hernández................6.1
Olivier Giroud................6.0
Andre Gray....................6.0
Andros Townsend...............6.0
Robert Snodgrass..............5.9
Daniel James..................5.9
Robbie Brady..................5.8
Danny Ings....................5.7
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.....5.7
Douglas Luiz..................5.7
Sean Longstaff................5.7
Marco Stiepermann.............5.6
Sébastien Haller..............5.6
Christian Pulisic.............5.5
Ross Barkley..................5.5
Demarai Gray..................5.5
Dwight McNeil.................5.5
Jordan Ayew...................5.4
Tom Davies....................5.4
Andriy Yarmolenko.............5.3
Marcus Rashford...............5.2
James Milner..................5.2
Michael Obafemi...............5.0
Muhamed Bešić.................5.0
Bukayo Saka...................5.0
Allan Saint-Maximin...........5.0
Shane Long....................4.8
Joshua King...................4.8
Oliver McBurnie...............4.8
Pablo Fornals.................4.7
Ryan Fraser...................4.6
Diogo Jota....................4.6
Teemu Pukki...................4.5
Harry Kane....................4.5
Kevin Danso...................4.5
Sergio Agüero.................4.5
David McGoldrick..............4.5
Will Hughes...................4.3
Dan Gosling...................4.2
Andreas Pereira...............4.2
Harry Wilson..................4.2
Lys Mousset...................4.1
Adam Lallana..................4.0
Che Adams.....................4.0
Cenk Tosun....................4.0
Billy Sharp...................4.0
Jamie Vardy...................4.0
Lucas Moura...................4.0
Andy Carroll..................4.0
Richarlison de Andrade........4.0
Cheikhou Kouyaté..............3.9
Stuart Armstrong..............3.8
Dominic Calvert-Lewin.........3.4
Raheem Sterling...............3.3
Anwar El Ghazi................3.2
Sofiane Boufal................3.2
Sadio Mané....................3.2
Theo Walcott..................3.1
Neal Maupay...................3.1
Xherdan Shaqiri...............3.0
Wilfried Zaha.................3.0
Max Meyer.....................3.0
Miguel Almirón................3.0
Callum Wilson.................2.8
Dominic Solanke...............2.8
Moise Kean....................2.7
Christian Atsu................2.7
Wesley Moraes.................2.6
Juan Mata.....................2.6
Aaron Connolly................2.5
Reiss Nelson..................2.5
Danny Welbeck.................2.5
Ayoze Pérez...................2.5
Gabriel Jesus.................2.4
Nemanja Matic.................2.3
Jesse Lingard.................2.1
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.......2.0
Jeff Hendrick.................2.0
Harvey Barnes.................1.8
Tammy Abraham.................1.8
Jeffrey Schlupp...............1.8
Alexandre Lacazette...........1.7
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld.....1.5
Patrick Cutrone...............1.3
Jay Rodriguez.................1.2
Johann Berg Gudmundsson.......1.0
Ashley Barnes.................0.8
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte0.7
Anthony Martial...............0.5
Glenn Murray..................0.3
Chris Wood....................0.2
Ismaïla Sarr..................0.0
Roberto Pereyra...............-0.1
Michail Antonio...............-0.2
Mohamed Salah.................-0.4
Jean-Philippe Gbamin..........-4.0
Callum Robinson...............-4.0
Emile Smith Rowe..............-4.0
Trézéguet.....................-4.5
Alireza Jahanbakhsh...........-6.0
Henrikh Mkhitaryan............-12.0
submitted by blubbersassafras to FantasyPL [link] [comments]


2019.12.25 10:41 blubbersassafras The xGorithm: an overdue update on my FPL mathematical model project (with GW19 forecasts!)

The xGorithm: an overdue update on my FPL mathematical model project (with GW19 forecasts!)
Merry Christmas FPL people! I hope you are all well and that you get off Reddit to spend time with your loved ones (as soon as you finish reading this post!).
I am (unfortunately) a maths student, and several months ago I wrote a semi-popular post about my adventure in answering a question: how good a mathematical model of the premier league could I develop using only xG and xA data from the current season? My answer was one that isn't that bad but probably isn't the best out there. I quickly realised I was able to extend my project to FPL, hence the post. At the time I got several requests, such as to upload my project on GitHub and to post weekly predictions. Here I will answer these questions, and also present some other interesting corollaries that my model allows me to investigate.
First off, as a self-taught programmer with no previous interest in sharing or corresponding on projects, I am a GitHub noob. Please forgive me, here is my attempt at creating a repository: https://github.com/harryrgrove/FPLmodel

Notable Changes to my Method

Along with a complete overhaul of my code (which exposed a few invisible bugs in my old version), the following changes have been made:
  • I have introduced different form interpolation standard deviation (ISD) (see mathematical part of original post if this term does not make sense) for each team's defence and offence; defensive form tends to change more slowly than offensive.
  • I have changed the way that a player's form is calculated from a flat average to a normal distribution-based interpolation method.
  • Defenders now have a much larger ISD, since their offensive returns are less form-based than those of midfielders and forwards.
  • The project data now satisfyingly auto-updates after every match has been played, which makes no difference to you but makes the whole thing far more enjoyable to me.

Player Points Forecast for GW19

The xGorithm's optimal team for this week - Expected Points: 63. I have made approximate judgements based on expected game-time (e.g. no El Ghazi) and nailed-ness uncertainty (e.g. no Aguero)
The following are predicted to be the highest-scoring players in GW19 assuming that the player plays 60 minutes or more! This is better interpreted as a rough guide than as a perfect prediction - what I have found it especially useful for is noting significant statistical performances from recent matches that one would otherwise fail to pick up on. I will outline some notable talking points from the forecast:
  • Could the Lord really be a viable captaincy shout? A resounding YES! The algorithm thinks he really is the best captaincy candidate. It gives Sheffield United a massive 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet this week (this should be taken with extreme salt, being over 10% higher than what the bookies suggest). It expects a mean of 0.21 goals (edit: exactly the same as the bookies!) and 0.18 assists from his Lordship, which doesn't seem an unrealistic proposition.
  • El Ghazi could be a cheaper way to tap into the stellar fixtures for Villa's offence. You will see that my algorithm predicts that El Ghazi's expected points is actually 0.01 higher than Grealish. El Ghazi is expected to get 0.43 goals and 0.28 assists if he plays more than 60 minutes, compared to Grealish's 0.49 goals and 0.17 assists. Villa are given a 28% chance of a clean sheet against Norwich (this compares quite well to the 25% predicted by the bookies). HOWEVER, it is important to note that this does not mean that El Ghazi is in any way the superior asset: his probability of playing the 60+ minutes, which there is no way to take into account, is much lower than Grealish's, and Grealish is the more likely player to outperform his xG as the more accomplished finisher.
  • McGoldrick: the most under-discussed player in FPL or rightly ignored? This model loves David McGoldrick, and it is clear to see why. If you only look at expected stats, just like my algorithm, one would think Dave is on the form of his career, having posted over 1 xG in both of the last two games - a rare and impressive feat that he is the only player in the season to currently hold (Salah was 0.01 off the mark last weekend). His recent numbers can be compared with the likes of Salah, Jesus, KDB and Vardy, who are among the league's current top performers in expected stats. The only problem is that in the real world, David 'McGoalDrought' sucks. He has registered a wholly impressive 7.12 xG this season, and with it he has scored a total of 0 (zero) goals, which is a feat far more statistically significant than any other I have come across in my project. I would suggest staying away from him until he shows that he knows how to stick the ball in the back of the net.
  • Could Magnus's much-discussed Maguire transfer pay off? The model certainly suggests so: it gives United an astronomical 56% (!) chance of a clean sheet (compares to 49% from the bookies - a -0.32 xPoint swing) against a Newcastle United attack that the algorithm forecasts generally scoring 0.46x the average team's expected xG when playing away from home. His big slab of a head is expected to score 0.15 goals as well, which is impressive for a defender. However, the algorithm is unable to take into account the new manager bounce that Watford could be experiencing, so these numbers should be taken with according levels of salt.
  • Harry Kane sucks. Again, this is highly justified by the stats my project draws from. Incredibly, the last time he scored over 0.5 xG was in GW12, and his xG/90 is almost as low as half as that of any season he's previously played. Although he will surely outperform his xStats, I wouldn't actually take this with too much salt; I think Kane currently sucks as an asset and should be avoided, especially for his price.
The following are the rankings, along with notes on any other unmentioned players whose forecasted figures shouldn't be taken too seriously.
John Lundstram 5.85
Marcus Rashford 5.82
Kevin De Bruyne 5.55
Raheem Sterling 5.41
Willian 5.40 xG form unfairly inflated due to recent penalty, not designated pen taker
David McGoldrick 5.36
Harry Maguire 5.35
Sergio Agüero 5.31Rotation Concern
Mohamed Salah 5.28
Anwar El Ghazi 5.25
Gabriel Jesus 5.24Uotation Concern
Jack Grealish 5.24
Paul Pogba 5.18
Sadio Mané 5.09
Anthony Martial 4.96Will surely be injured after tripping over on a bauble
Riyad Mahrez 4.92Rotation Concern
Enda Stevens 4.88
Christian Pulisic 4.81Rotation Concern?
Bamidele Alli 4.79
Aaron Wan-Bissaka 4.77
Luke Shaw 4.68
Brandon Williams 4.67Unlikely to play full match
Jack O'Connell 4.57
Lucas Moura 4.52
Victor Lindelöf 4.48
Tammy Abraham 4.44
Jesse Lingard 4.44
George Baldock 4.42
Daniel James 4.41
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 4.40
David de Gea 4.36
Chris Basham 4.36
Teemu Pukki 4.31
Bernardo Silva 4.22
John Egan 4.15
John Fleck 4.15
Richarlison de Andrade 4.07
Kyle Walker 4.07
Harry Kane 4.06
Dean Henderson 4.03
Jamie Vardy 3.99
James Tomkins 3.95
Trent Alexander-Arnold 3.95
Michail Antonio 3.95
Calum Chambers 3.91
Che Adams 3.85
Andreas Pereira 3.83
Mason Mount 3.82
Kieran Tierney 3.82
Christian Benteke 3.80
Danny Ings 3.78
Alexandre Lacazette 3.76
Nicolas Pépé 3.76
Roberto Firmino 3.76
Chris Mepham 3.74
Shane Long 3.73
James Ward-Prowse 3.72
Chris Wood 3.71
Lys Mousset 3.70
Nicolás Otamendi 3.70
Ilkay Gündogan 3.70
Emiliano Buendía 3.70
Andrew Robertson 3.68
David Luiz 3.66
Scott McTominay 3.66
Leandro Trossard 3.64
Christian Eriksen 3.62
Wilfried Zaha 3.61
Oliver McBurnie 3.58
John McGinn 3.56
Raúl Jiménez 3.55
Oleksandr Zinchenko 3.55
John Stones 3.51
Matt Targett 3.50
Sokratis Papastathopoulos 3.50
Neal Maupay 3.50
Martin Kelly 3.49
N'Golo Kanté 3.49
Scott Dann 3.46
Lucas Digne 3.40
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3.39
Harvey Barnes 3.39
Todd Cantwell 3.36
Trézéguet 3.36
Mamadou Sakho 3.34
Mesut Özil 3.33
Bernd Leno 3.33
Luka Milivojevic 3.30
James Milner 3.29
Pascal Groß 3.29
Ismaïla Sarr 3.29
Xherdan Shaqiri 3.29
Theo Walcott 3.28
Vicente Guaita 3.26
Moussa Sissoko 3.26
Jordan Ayew 3.24
Ashley Westwood 3.24
Marcos Alonso 3.23
Ryan Fraser 3.22
Conor Hourihane 3.18
James Maddison 3.18
Bukayo Saka 3.18
Ederson 3.17
Dwight McNeil 3.17
Eric Dier 3.17
Wesley Moraes 3.16
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 3.16
Aaron Mooy 3.14
Michael Keane 3.12
Ashley Barnes 3.12
Diogo Jota 3.12
Mason Holgate 3.12
Serge Aurier 3.12
Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.11
Oliver Norwood 3.05
Virgil van Dijk 3.04
Andros Townsend 3.03
Cheikhou Kouyaté 3.02
Yerry Mina 3.01
Dejan Lovren 2.99
Robert Snodgrass 2.99
Jay Rodriguez 2.97
César Azpilicueta 2.97
Ayoze Pérez 2.91
Joshua King 2.89
Davy Pröpper 2.88
Jack Stacey 2.88
Jordan Henderson 2.87
Frédéric Guilbert 2.86
Sébastien Haller 2.86
Kenny McLean 2.86
Onel Hernández 2.85
Joseph Gomez 2.84
Mateo Kovacic 2.84
Harry Wilson 2.83
Jonjo Shelvey 2.83
Lucas Torreira 2.82
James Tarkowski 2.82
Rodrigo Hernandez 2.81
Tom Davies 2.81
Alisson Ramses Becker 2.80
Miguel Almirón 2.80
Douglas Luiz 2.80
Pablo Fornals 2.78
Tanguy Ndombele 2.77
Matteo Guendouzi 2.76
Troy Deeney 2.75
Georginio Wijnaldum 2.75
Jorginho 2.75
Gerard Deulofeu 2.73
Dani Ceballos 2.72
Simon Francis 2.71
Benjamin Mendy 2.71
Felipe Anderson 2.71
Adama Traoré 2.69
Aaron Ramsdale 2.69
Erik Pieters 2.69
Toby Alderweireld 2.67
Kurt Zouma 2.65
Davinson Sánchez 2.64
Andreas Christensen 2.63
Christian Atsu 2.62
Will Hughes 2.62
Youri Tielemans 2.62
Jordan Pickford 2.60
Jack Cork 2.60
João Filipe Moutinho 2.60
Aaron Connolly 2.60
Jan Vertonghen 2.57
Matthew Lowton 2.56
Paulo Gazzaniga 2.56
Marvelous Nakamba 2.56
Granit Xhaka 2.55
Fikayo Tomori 2.55
Philip Billing 2.55
Harry Winks 2.52
Mason Greenwood 2.51
Tom Trybull 2.50
Andy Carroll 2.49
Lewis Dunk 2.48
Bjorn Engels 2.48
Wilfred Ndidi 2.46
Callum Wilson 2.46
Ben Mee 2.46
Sean Longstaff 2.45
Alexander Tettey 2.44
Antonio Rüdiger 2.43
Phil Foden 2.41No data from games with 60+ mins played, only CS points added
Etienne Capoue 2.40
Nick Pope 2.38
Rúben Neves 2.38
Tom Heaton 2.38
Michael Obafemi 2.35
Joelinton 2.35
Charlie Taylor 2.32
Kepa Arrizabalaga 2.31
Leander Dendoncker 2.31
Dan Burn 2.30
Isaac Hayden 2.27
Ryan Bertrand 2.26
Mark Noble 2.26
Martín Montoya 2.24
Declan Rice 2.22
Stuart Armstrong 2.21
Benjamin Chilwell 2.18
Ricardo Pereira 2.11
Jonny Evans 1.97
Maximillian Aarons 1.96
Adam Webster 1.95
Çaglar Söyüncü 1.89
Sam Byram 1.86
Kasper Schmeichel 1.76
Cédric Soares 1.71
Mathew Ryan 1.65
Grant Hanley 1.63
Matt Doherty 1.58
Ben Foster 1.57
Craig Cathcart 1.55
Christoph Zimmermann 1.49
Federico Fernández 1.47
Jack Stephens 1.40
Tim Krul 1.37
Fabian Schär 1.33
Jetro Willems 1.32
Jan Bednarek 1.31
Alex McCarthy 1.23
Angus Gunn 1.23
Javier Manquillo 1.10
Martin Dubravka 1.06
Romain Saïss 1.05
Jonny 1.03
Conor Coady 0.65
Rui Patrício 0.64
Fabián Balbuena 0.19
Aaron Cresswell 0.01
Arthur Masuaku -0.0
Angelo Ogbonna -0.0
Issa Diop -0.0
David Martin -0.3

Other Predictions for GW19

Why not throw this in for a bit of fun - here are my algorithms predictions for each match to be played in GW19:
Spurs 1 - 1 Brighton (Most likely outcome: Spurs win 48%)
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Norwich (Most likely outcome: Aston Villa win 51%)
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Arsenal (Most likely outcome: Arsenal win 42%)
Chelsea 2 - 1 Southampton (Most likely outcome: Chelsea win 53%)
Crystal Palace 1 - 0 West Ham (Most likely outcome: Crystal Palace win 43%)
Everton 1 - 1 Burnley (Most likely outcome: Everton win 40%)
Sheffield United 1 - 0 Watford (Most likely outcome: Sheffield United win 66%)
Man United 2 - 0 Newcastle (Most likely outcome: Man United win 76%)
Leicester 1 - 1 Liverpool (Most likely outcome: Liverpool win 50%)
Wolves 0 - 2 Man City (Most likely outcome: Man City win 72%)

What else can I do with my model?

I have used my model for a couple of other projects of interest: to predict the final standings in the season and to analyse the mathematical nature of clean sheets.
Here is my algorithm's prediction for how the season will end assuming that the current form of all teams continues for the rest of the season, along with relevant probabilities:

Team Winner % Champions League % Relegation %
Liverpool 94 100 0
Manchester City 5 99 0
Leicester 0 98 0
Chelsea 0 72 0
Manchester United 0 17 0
Sheffield United 0 5 0
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 2 0
Burnley 0 1 0
Tottenham 0 1 0
Everton 0 0 0
Arsenal 0 0 1
Brighton 0 0 1
Southampton 0 0 2
Bournemouth 0 0 12
Crystal Palace 0 0 8
Newcastle United 0 0 10
Aston Villa 0 0 31
West Ham 0 0 65
Watford 0 0 72
Norwich 0 0 91

My other random curiosity was to use the following method to determine whether "leaky defences" (a team’s defence that shows a pattern of statistically significant consistency of keeping less clean sheets than expected, such as Liverpool's, Tottenham's or Man Utd's) exist, or if it's all just bad luck.
  1. For team X in season S (assume S contains 20 teams) of league L, generate a random integer n between 10 and 20 (inclusive), as well as a random starting point a between 0 and 38 − n (inclusive). Define the set of matches M := { ith match that X plays in S: i ∈ { a + j : j ∈ { 1 , ... , n } }.
  2. Set count to 0. For m in M, use my algorithm to calculate p\*cs* = ℙ( X concedes 0 goals in m ). Generate a random decimal number p\\rand between 0 and 1. If p\*cs* > p\\rand then add 1 to the count. This can be thought of as simulating a clean sheet.
  3. Append counts array C with the count of simulated clean sheets.
  4. Repeat steps 2-3 100,000 times. Say that in M, X kept c\*true* clean sheets. Append **probabilities array P with { c ∈ C : cc\*true* } / 100,000. This can be thought of as the probability that, given a random distribution of goals conceded, X would have kept c\\true clean sheets or fewer.
  5. Repeat steps 1-4 10 times.
  6. Repeat steps 1-5 for each team X playing in season S.
  7. Repeat steps 1-6 for each season S of league L.
  8. Repeat steps 1-7 for each league L in { EPL, La Liga, Ligue 1, Serie A }
  9. Test P to see if it is a randomly distributed: if so it should have a mean of approximately 0.5 and a variance of approximately 1/12. Otherwise, either mean - 0.5 will be notably greater than 0 (likely mean will be smaller than 0.5), and/or the variance will be notably larger than 1/12. If P is randomly distributed, we can assume that clean sheets are all just random noise.
My results were that it was essentially random luck, and if it do they have a negligible effect. I was planning on making a full post about this, but then Liverpool started keeping clean sheets and Leicester stopped, so the whole thing became immediately less interesting.

Thank you for reading about my work! If anyone has any constructive criticism, advice, or inquiries about it then I will gladly oblige. If you all like this, or if Lundstram actually does end the week as the highest-scoring player, then I would be happy to post weekly forecasts!
submitted by blubbersassafras to FantasyPL [link] [comments]


2019.11.15 12:35 pastenague [OC] An analysis of the most common substitutions in the top 5 leagues over the past 5 years

Introduction

Using match data obtained from Understat (full credit to them), I calculated the most common substitutions in top 5 league matches during the period from 2014 to 2019 (5 seasons total). This analysis does not include any data from the current season.
I split the analysis into two parts: one where order of the substitution does not matter and all that matters is the two players involved in the substitution ("unsequenced") and one where order is taken into account ("sequenced"). I.e., in the unsequenced analysis, "X in, Y out" is counted as the same as "Y in, X out"; in contrast, in the sequenced anaylsis, "X in, Y out" and "Y in, X out" are treated as different events.
The spreadsheets with the full data are listed under each heading. Feel free to leave a comment if you'd like to know the most common substitution for your team, or have a look for yourself in the spreadsheet!

Most Common Subs (Unsequenced, All Seasons)

Spreadsheet

Team Sub_1 Sub_2 Frequency
Napoli Dries Mertens Lorenzo Insigne 36
Borussia M.Gladbach Ibrahima Traoré Patrick Herrmann 28
Empoli Levan Mchedlidze Massimo Maccarone 27
Torino Joel Obi Daniele Baselli 26
Chelsea Willian Eden Hazard 24
Napoli Piotr Zielinski Marek Hamsik 24
Espanyol Cristhian Stuani Felipe Caicedo 24
Cagliari Diego Farias Marco Sau 23
Southampton Charlie Austin Shane Long 22
Napoli Arkadiusz Milik Dries Mertens 22
Hertha Berlin Davie Selke Vedad Ibisevic 22
Bayern Munich Kingsley Coman Franck Ribéry 21
Arsenal Olivier Giroud Theo Walcott 21
Chelsea Willian Pedro 21
West Bromwich Albion Hal Robson-Kanu Salomón Rondón 21
Lazio Miroslav Klose Filip Djordjevic 21
Sassuolo Antonio Floro Flores Nicola Sansone 21
Valencia Álvaro Negredo Paco Alcácer 21
Tottenham Erik Lamela Son Heung-Min 20
Leicester Shinji Okazaki Demarai Gray 20
Napoli Amadou Diawara Jorginho 20
Burnley Sam Vokes Ashley Barnes 20
Burnley Sam Vokes Chris Wood 20
Manchester City Gabriel Jesus Sergio Agüero 20

Most Common Subs (Unsequenced, Season-by-Season)

Spreadsheet

Season Team Sub_1 Sub_2 Frequency
2014-15 Espanyol Cristhian Stuani Felipe Caicedo 24
2016-17 Torino Joel Obi Daniele Baselli 18
2018-19 Chelsea Ross Barkley Mateo Kovacic 18
2018-19 Brighton Florin Andone Glenn Murray 18
2017-18 Napoli Piotr Zielinski Marek Hamsik 17
2015-16 Napoli Dries Mertens Lorenzo Insigne 17
2014-15 Celta Vigo Charles Joaquín Larrivey 17
2014-15 Empoli Levan Mchedlidze Massimo Maccarone 16
2018-19 Manchester City Gabriel Jesus Sergio Agüero 16
2017-18 Newcastle United Joselu Dwight Gayle 15
2018-19 Sampdoria Riccardo Saponara Gastón Ramírez 15
2014-15 Lazio Miroslav Klose Filip Djordjevic 15
2014-15 Sassuolo Antonio Floro Flores Nicola Sansone 15
2014-15 Juventus Álvaro Morata Fernando Llorente 15
2017-18 Brighton Solly March José Izquierdo 15

Most Common Subs (Sequenced, All Seasons)

Spreadsheet

Team Sub.In Sub.Out Frequency
Napoli Dries Mertens Lorenzo Insigne 29
Napoli Piotr Zielinski Marek Hamsik 24
Empoli Levan Mchedlidze Massimo Maccarone 23
Napoli Amadou Diawara Jorginho 20
Manchester City Gabriel Jesus Sergio Agüero 20
Borussia M.Gladbach Ibrahima Traoré Patrick Herrmann 18
Espanyol Cristhian Stuani Felipe Caicedo 18
Chelsea Willian Eden Hazard 18
Real Madrid Lucas Vázquez Gareth Bale 18
Napoli Arkadiusz Milik Dries Mertens 17
Burnley Sam Vokes Ashley Barnes 16
Torino Joel Obi Daniele Baselli 16
Hertha Berlin Davie Selke Vedad Ibisevic 16

Most Common Subs (Sequenced, Season-by-Season)

Spreadsheet

Season Team Sub.In Sub.Out Frequency
2014-15 Espanyol Cristhian Stuani Felipe Caicedo 18
2015-16 Napoli Dries Mertens Lorenzo Insigne 17
2017-18 Napoli Piotr Zielinski Marek Hamsik 17
2014-15 Empoli Levan Mchedlidze Massimo Maccarone 16
2018-19 Manchester City Gabriel Jesus Sergio Agüero 16
2014-15 Juventus Álvaro Morata Fernando Llorente 15
2015-16 Darmstadt Tobias Kempe Konstantin Rausch 14
2014-15 Sevilla Kevin Gameiro Carlos Bacca 13
2015-16 Chievo Simone Pepe Valter Birsa 13
TL;DR: The most common substitution across the top 5 leagues from 2014 to 2019, by far, involves Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne of Napoli. The most common substitution in any one season of the top 5 leagues from 2014 to 2019, again by far, involved Felipe Caicedo and Cristhian Stuani of Espanyol in 2014-2015.
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2018.12.28 14:38 razzic Expected Stats Review – GW19: Top Performers, Underperformers and Overperformers

Hello, and welcome back to this Gameweek’s Expected Stats Review.
 
TL;DR: Visual summary – Season to date.
 
TL;DR: Visual summary – Last 5 GWs.
 
Notes following GW19:
 
Before we dive into this week’s numbers: For all questions regarding the nature and usefulness of ‘expected’ stats and the data here, please see my original post.
The TL;DR is: ‘expected’ stats are useful and strongly associated with actual performance but should be just one input to your FPL evaluations. Don't make any FPL decisions purely based on this. Go explore the full 'expected' stats data. Combine your analysis with other statistics. Make qualitative assessments of on-the-pitch performance, form and fixtures, use bookmaker odds, etc.
As always, the data is from understat. And as always, thoughts and feedback is very welcome.
 
For more thoughts and discussion, find me on Twitter @wiscostretford. My FPL team, by the way, is here.
 
 
Now, on to the stats for the season so far:
 
Last GW’s Top Performers
The ‘last GW’s top performers’ stats tells us which players have performed the best in terms of combined expected goals and assists (xG+A) in the last GW only.
 
Player ChangeThisGW Last3GWs
Eden Hazard 1.76 2.03
Mohamed Salah 1.43 2.87
Xherdan Shaqiri 1.37 1.37
Nathan Redmond 1.28 2.24
Sergio Agüero 1.14 1.14
Oriol Romeu 1.11 1.54
Gylfi Sigurdsson 1.09 1.28
Son Heung-Min 1.06 2.37
Harry Kane 1.04 2.34
Jürgen Locadia 1.01 1.05
Abdoulaye Doucouré 0.94 1.35
Romain Saiss 0.92 1.05
Mateo Kovacic 0.88 1.08
Marc Albrighton 0.86 0.96
Nemanja Matic 0.86 0.92
Jamie Vardy 0.85 1.1
Felipe Anderson 0.84 1.7
Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.83 0.83
Sadio Mané 0.82 1.61
Leroy Sané 0.75 1.06
 
Overall Top Performers
The ‘overall top performers’ stats tells us which players have performed the best in terms of combined expected goals and assists (xG+A).
 
Player Team Apps Min Goals Assists Shots Key passes xG xA xG+A
Mohamed Salah Liverpool 19 1585 12 6 64 41 11.77 6.46 18.23
Harry Kane Tottenham 19 1627 12 3 63 17 11.41 3.19 14.61
Eden Hazard Chelsea 18 1407 10 9 50 50 7.15 6.85 14
Sergio Agüero Manchester City 15 1114 8 5 58 21 9.46 3.35 12.82
Raheem Sterling Manchester City 16 1310 9 6 34 34 7.3 5.08 12.38
Callum Wilson Bournemouth 18 1518 8 5 38 24 8.27 3.93 12.2
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Arsenal 19 1495 13 3 46 18 9.32 2.75 12.07
Gylfi Sigurdsson Everton 19 1609 8 3 46 39 6.79 3.48 10.27
Jamie Vardy Leicester 15 1116 6 2 32 9 8.43 1.67 10.1
David Silva Manchester City 15 1113 5 2 29 36 4.48 5.6 10.08
Leroy Sané Manchester City 17 1068 6 7 34 28 5.28 4.61 9.89
Roberto Firmino Liverpool 19 1442 4 3 40 23 6.5 3.33 9.83
Ryan Fraser Bournemouth 19 1578 4 8 22 46 2.17 7.53 9.7
Raúl Jiménez Wolverhampton Wanderers 19 1554 5 4 59 21 6.65 2.72 9.37
Sadio Mané Liverpool 17 1444 7 1 40 22 6.09 2.91 9.01
Danny Ings Southampton 14 1035 7 1 37 15 7.48 1.21 8.69
Bernardo Silva Manchester City 18 1497 5 4 28 35 4.06 4.53 8.6
Paul Pogba Manchester United 16 1317 5 5 48 23 6.35 2.1 8.46
Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 15 674 3 2 27 13 6.06 2.14 8.2
Aleksandar Mitrovic Fulham 19 1665 7 2 68 14 7.07 1.09 8.16
 
Overall Underperformers
‘Overall underperformers’ indicates players with lower actual returns (G+A) than expected returns (xG+A) to date. This might be due to bad luck or lacking skill. The top 20 are shown below.
 
Player Team Apps Min Goals Assists Shots Key passes xG xA xG+A Difference
Joe Ralls Cardiff 15 1101 0 0 14 13 1.15 2.32 3.47 3.47
Troy Deeney Watford 16 1338 3 1 32 16 5.34 1.92 7.26 3.26
Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 15 674 3 2 27 13 6.06 2.14 8.2 3.2
David Silva Manchester City 15 1113 5 2 29 36 4.48 5.6 10.08 3.08
Isaac Success Watford 19 719 1 0 20 16 2.42 1.6 4.02 3.02
Roberto Firmino Liverpool 19 1442 4 3 40 23 6.5 3.33 9.83 2.83
Mohamed Elyounoussi Southampton 11 552 0 0 17 13 1.63 1.02 2.65 2.65
Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 4 332 0 0 13 4 2.11 0.42 2.53 2.53
Antonio Rüdiger Chelsea 19 1689 1 0 20 6 2.46 0.76 3.22 2.22
Naby Keita Liverpool 14 747 0 0 19 4 1.65 0.53 2.18 2.18
Diogo Jota Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 1043 2 1 21 13 2.77 2.35 5.12 2.12
Jamie Vardy Leicester 15 1116 6 2 32 9 8.43 1.67 10.1 2.1
Pascal Groß Brighton 11 756 1 0 7 17 2.02 1.06 3.07 2.07
Wilfred Ndidi Leicester 19 1679 1 0 35 13 1.7 1.33 3.03 2.03
Matt Ritchie Newcastle United 17 1310 0 2 19 24 1.64 2.36 4 2
Ben Davies Tottenham 15 1084 0 0 8 12 0.29 1.68 1.97 1.97
Theo Walcott Everton 19 1436 3 2 27 15 4.51 2.36 6.87 1.87
Yves Bissouma Brighton 16 854 0 0 18 6 1.52 0.29 1.81 1.81
Hélder Costa Wolverhampton Wanderers 18 1198 0 2 23 16 1.82 1.99 3.8 1.8
Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 17 908 0 1 26 8 2.36 0.44 2.8 1.8
 
Overall Overperformers
‘Overall overperformers’ indicates players with higher actual returns (G+A) than expected returns (xG+A) to date. This might be due to good luck or exceptional skill. The top 20 are shown below.
 
Player Team Apps Min Goals Assists Shots Key passes xG xA xG+A Difference
Christian Eriksen Tottenham 16 1062 3 7 26 27 1.29 3.18 4.48 -5.52
Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 18 1185 7 5 34 18 4.83 1.69 6.51 -5.49
Eden Hazard Chelsea 18 1407 10 9 50 50 7.15 6.85 14 -5
Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 16 681 1 6 14 17 0.76 1.56 2.32 -4.68
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Arsenal 19 1495 13 3 46 18 9.32 2.75 12.07 -3.93
José Holebas Watford 16 1436 3 5 10 27 0.47 3.87 4.34 -3.66
Marcus Rashford Manchester United 16 1026 4 5 26 18 3.87 1.7 5.56 -3.44
Son Heung-Min Tottenham 14 843 7 3 31 12 5.21 1.67 6.87 -3.13
Leroy Sané Manchester City 17 1068 6 7 34 28 5.28 4.61 9.89 -3.11
Richarlison Everton 17 1394 9 1 41 10 6.09 0.95 7.04 -2.96
Xherdan Shaqiri Liverpool 14 718 6 2 23 15 3.92 1.16 5.08 -2.92
Benjamin Mendy Manchester City 9 810 0 5 6 12 0.21 2.05 2.26 -2.74
Ross Barkley Chelsea 15 531 3 3 19 8 2.28 1.04 3.32 -2.68
Raheem Sterling Manchester City 16 1310 9 6 34 34 7.3 5.08 12.38 -2.62
Anthony Martial Manchester United 14 891 8 0 19 21 3.8 1.71 5.52 -2.48
Kyle Walker-Peters Tottenham 2 101 0 3 1 3 0.33 0.23 0.56 -2.44
Johann Berg Gudmundsson Burnley 15 1167 2 4 18 21 1.4 2.19 3.59 -2.41
Ryan Fraser Bournemouth 19 1578 4 8 22 46 2.17 7.53 9.7 -2.3
Shane Duffy Brighton 16 1377 3 1 11 4 1.56 0.18 1.74 -2.26
Zanka Huddersfield 17 1521 3 1 6 5 1.43 0.34 1.77 -2.23
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2018.09.20 18:58 internetemu Geragos had a professor/expert testify that Scott couldn't get a fair trial in Modesto. Judge relied on it for venue change. Surprise! It was a fraud. "Reckless & seriously deviated from accepted practices." Result: suspended for a semester without pay, demoted, 3 years academic probation.

Misconduct by professor found
Stan State panel recommends discipline over Peterson survey
Stanislaus State Professor Stephen Schoenthaler's testimony played a key role in a judge's decision to move Scott Peterson's murder trial.
By MELANIE TURNER
BEE STAFF WRITER
Last Updated: January 25, 2005, 07:56:00 AM PST
Stephen Schoenthaler, the professor who oversaw a tainted survey that factored into the Scott Peterson double-murder trial being moved to San Mateo County, committed academic and scientific misconduct, an investigation committee has concluded.
The committee has recommended that he be suspended for a semester without pay, demoted to associate professor from full professor at California State University, Stanislaus, and placed on probation for three years.
The university released the results of its yearlong investigation Monday in response to a Modesto Bee request for the document under the California Public Records Act. The report was dated Oct. 13, 2004.
The three-member investigation committee, made up of two professors from Stanislaus State and a third from CSU, Sacramento, also found that Schoenthaler:
Violated a university policy that requires research proposals that use people to be submitted to an Institutional Review Board for approval. The process is in place to protect people involved in the research.
Failed to exercise appropriate professional judgment in designing and conducting the survey, and he "seriously deviated from the professional standards and accepted practices of the relevant research community."
Had good reason to believe that some data were fabricated before testifying at the change-of-venue hearing for Peterson. Schoenthaler vouched for the validity of the research at the hearing.
"Schoenthaler's failure to withdraw the research results … was reckless and seriously deviated from commonly accepted practices," the report states.
His failure to disclose data limitations is "extremely serious," the report continues, "particularly given his intention that these data be used in a highly publicized capital murder trial."
Schoenthaler, a professor of sociology and criminal justice at Stanislaus State since 1982, remains on paid administrative leave. Meanwhile, university administrators have reviewed the final investigation report and are considering what to do next.
"Just what administration action we will take has yet to be determined," said Provost David Dauwalder.
He added that the report on Schoenthaler's role in the matter is "not binding in terms of potential personnel actions that the university may take." He said he expects the university to take action soon.
"However," he added, "it's important to remember that personnel matters are governed by the collective-bargaining agreement … so the university won't be able to reveal what happened for some time due to various potential appeals processes."
Schoenthaler declined comment, according to a woman who answered the phone at his residence. "He's not interested in speaking with anybody. Thank you," she said.
Schoenthaler's attorney could not be reached for comment.
A request for Schoenthaler's payroll records also was granted Monday. His annual pay is $83,808. He's been on paid leave since spring of 2004.
He has not taught since being placed on leave. During the first part of his leave, he performed unspecified duties outside the classroom. By the fall term, he was on leave without duties.
Several students told The Bee in December 2003 that they fabricated results for the survey, which Stanislaus County Superior Court Judge Al Girolami used in part in deciding to move the Peterson trial to San Mateo County.
The students claimed they used bogus responses because of deadline pressure to complete the survey, on which they received a grade. Ultimately, 31 of the 58 students were cleared, and 26 were charged and disciplined. One case is unresolved.
Also among the investigation committee's findings:
Schoenthaler had a long-standing pattern of conducting research using human subjects without review board approval.
According to university policy, this type of research must be submitted to the review board and approved before the project begins.
The same requirements were in place in 1995 when Schoenthaler oversaw a change-of-venue survey for another high-profile capital murder case, that of Richard Allen Davis, convicted of murdering 12-year-old Polly Klaas.
In 14 years, Schoenthaler has overseen 31 change-of-venue surveys, using student surveyors for the three highest-profile cases. The third involved San Joaquin County serial killer Louis Peoples.
Department chairman Paul O'Brien instructed Schoenthaler to stop the survey because it had not been submitted to the review board.
Committee members concluded that there is no clear authority for a department chairman to order a faculty member to cease specific research. But, they added, "We believe that faculty have a responsibility to take due cognizance of instructions given to them by department chairs with respect to university policies and procedures."
In November, Peterson was found guilty of first-degree murder in the death of his wife, Laci, and second-degree murder in the death of their unborn son Conner. A month later, that jury came back with the death penalty. A formal sentencing has been scheduled for Feb. 25.
PROFESSOR'S POTENTIAL PUNISHMENT
Stephen Schoenthaler could face these and other sanctions from Stanislaus State as a result of producing a fraudulent survey in connection with the Scott Peterson murder case:
https://web.archive.org/web/20051110055548/http://www.modbee.com:80/reports/peterson/trial/story/9826418p-10685938c.html
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2017.10.16 22:37 911bodysnatchers322 Transcript of George Webb Video Series Part 181: "Hillary's Leakers, Hackers, and Henchmen" [@Georgwebb / #HRCRatlne]

  • >>>CONT
    • He's worked for the Congress making 160 thousand a year
    • He's got 12 businesses got 22 22 22 businesses 12 properties
    • What's going on?
    • And so that's basically the the gist that you can tell your local television person
    • And then I would forward and copy each one to yourself
    • So the other television stations know that you're sending it to other TV stations, to put a little competitiveness and into the into the mix
    • Well this weekend your Congressman will be home
    • So now would be a good time to have local media contact local media and ask them about the lawsuit about--this guy in Pakistan doing hundreds of suspicious money transfers
    • And sending terabytes of Congressional data your data to Pakistan
  • Day 359.1 I Just Want To Offshore the Spy Ring in Congress - YouTube
    • Good morning at state 359
    • And someone sent me this email or tweet tweeted this thing by outer light this guy from New Zealand who's a favorite of mine
    • And he's talking about the this one auditor named Dan in the United States sets meticulously gone through a hundred and eighty thousand of Hillary's emails that were released in September of last year
    • And two of the big findings here was one Rex Tillerson was put in with the security clearance in 2013
    • And then the other piece is that in all of these emails, and he's about a third of the way through the hundred eighty thousand, he's going through each document the first five to ten pages of each document, so it's really a massive undertaking
    • Is that Bill Clinton is not mentioned Bill Clinton is not mentioned in any of these emails even casually--like will Bill be there? Should I come over for dinner? Will Bill like to sit for dinner?
    • And this has been my point all along that we have to follow the documentation we can't-- have just this concept in our heads and then that's just look going to be the way it is when new evidence comes to light we have to accept the new evidence
    • I had someone Twitter yesterday say well extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof
    • Not really
    • Working theory although it may be extraordinary means that you keep your mind flexible
    • So that as new data comes out that you slightly change slightly modify on a daily basis selected Stinger missile you slightly modify it in order to get to the truth and that's the key here: it's not about being right and it's not about being wrong
    • It's about being flexible
    • And it's about vetting
    • So extraordinary working theory requires extraordinary vetting
    • But here's a guy who is a top auditor 180,000 documents in he's 60,000 documents in to 180,000 documents top-level Auditor:
    • Nothing about William Jefferson Clinton
    • And this goes back to what I've said before all the way going back to Arkansas and Mena Airport, even if you want to go back to 1984 it's been Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary
    • Bill has had his troubles on the sex side with the parties and all that cocaine I get all that
    • But all this subterfuge stuff were you're using the oil business to then enable a drug Burt and weapons trade is all gonna be going back to George Bush and George Bush's contacts and with with Hillary
    • And then Tillerson basically gets implanted here as a replacement for Hillary, because Obama doesn't trust Hillary
    • I'm just saying that these are the key pieces of evidence that you have to look to, right?
    • Now this person here that Chad Calderon said, "hey your mangos are in this too by the way"
    • And I haven't got that far yet because I wanted to make a point on this and it's gonna be the same way in our lawsuit
    • The problem somebody said oh Standing Rock this reminds me a lot of Standing Rock and the what I said was the problem with Standing Rock is they were standing in the wrong place you need to be standing in a courtroom if you have any chance at all against these guys
    • Someone else said this is such a massive thing--what if a million people did this
    • And my point on this whole series is how few people how few people it takes to effect change
    • A hundred and we're up to 150 Congressional districts now
    • We picked up Arkansas overnight
    • We still need Delaware but 44 states
    • Now excuse me 44 states 150 districts this is going to be a campaign issue the reason why I turn to Pakistani ISI green is because the data your iConstituent data did go to Pakistan and it is being entrusted to Imran Awan since 2000
    • That's the key point here right
    • So if you mr. Congressman want this to be a campaign issue continue to do nothing continue to do nothing!
    • But we're putting on notice that between now and a year from now, when you go to re-election, your opponent is free to use this
    • If you're gonna let Imran Awan use this information as a club against the American people with possibly opium targeting veterans of veterans families and from what we've seen from the VA it certainly points in that direction, it certainly doesn't point to just incompetence, then we're gonna take the club out of Imran head and give it to your opponent
    • Now you can turn into a Louie Gohmert and China and and and beat against Pakistani ISI right you can turn around and join the join the fight no more fake hearings but real hearings and you can call for hearings
    • Now this is something we don't have to wait for in the court this is why the court of public opinion is so important
    • You win battles every day in the court of public opinion
    • You don't wait for the courtrooms
    • Napoleon said, "the eagle flies from steeple of steeple"--you don't wait
    • You go and win the next battle the next day you don't wait and that's the key to this whole thing
    • So now we have standing in a hundred and fifty Congressional districts
    • This will fill itself out by by the end of the weekend
    • A couple of interesting things Ted lose thirty three down here
    • We've got Ted Lieu's thirty three Long Beach
    • I still think part of Long Beach is in 33 but I might be totally wrong 38 is where Long Beach is
    • So we still need 38 and we're gonna turn this
    • Now because what we don't need 435 Louie Gohmerts
    • We don't need 435 we need 135
    • We actually only need about 25 or 30 to get the Congressional committees going, but it with 130 to 150
    • We got enough to get the Congressional committees going that's the key with real real Congressional hearings
    • So in one day we got the critical mass for what we needed for Congressional hearings
    • Now I want to turn this into looking at the actual blackberry carriers
    • The current carriers the current 20 carriers
    • And we're going to do this just through metadata
    • And then we're gonna also get to get the hundred 50 carriers since 2000 there may be more than 150 blackberry carriers
    • But these are going to be the secret encrypted advice devices that enable a enable ratlines
    • And as I said from the beginning of the story oil ratlines then be get drug and weapons ratlines--that's all there is to it
    • That nasty part of this and I'm I'm not trying to break up the CIA's business
    • The nasty part of this is when Hillary brought this in 1998 to Bill Clinton through special decision directive 62
    • And decided to onshore this is my key point they decided onshore the things that Dyncorp been happily doing overseas--the organ harvesting, and the child trafficking, or the the teen brides
    • I am just saying stop keep CIA can keep all that business, but stop on shoring the organ harvesting stop onshoring the opiate targeting
    • Those are my two key things
    • And turn the dial up to over 15 as far as the bride targeting
    • Get Evan McMullen out of this operation
    • Get the Brotherhood out of this operation
    • Stop doing this in the United States
    • I want to go more to an England model--Where we affect all these horrible tragedies on other nations not our own people
    • Someone else can worry about cleaning up the CIA after that
    • I just want the CIA out of the drug business--stop the organ harvesting, all of this kind of stuff that they used to be happy just doing overseas
    • This Hillary factor of onshoring this stuff is what I am against
    • Offshore it and I'll be quiet
  • Day 359.2. Now On To House Armed Services Committee For Awan IConstituent Info - YouTube
    • This is Day 359 part 2 I want to clarify what I said in the last video
    • All I'm trying to do is is take it one step at a time take it one step at a time, and just work on the things that we can get done in the u.s. before we take on the whole world
    • What always happens is there's ideologues they come into the discussion they say the whole world is corrupt, and then they zoom out
    • And what I'm trying to say is in this battle you zoom in
    • It's not looking for a hundred and fifty people to agree with you it's looking for a hundred and fifty people with standing, who will send letters notice letters to their Congressmen that's very very different than getting 150 people to agree with you
    • And so what we accomplished yesterday was things that take months at major legal firms months to get 150 different people in a class with standing for a legal for a legal battle
    • So I will take on the other ills in the world court, but we have to get the operations out of the u.s. first
    • Now the good news here in the in the in the sign up here at the Imran iConstituent the Awan constituent map is
    • We picked up arkansas we picked up oklahoma, so we have standing in those states
    • Now we just need to get Kansas Wyoming South Dakota and North Dakota and then Delaware DC and Rhode Island
    • So I don't know what the sticky point there is, but I would really love to get those states just
    • So we have the whole map
    • So we can stand in front of the court and say your honor we've heard from every state in this country every state in this country your honor and ladies and gentlemen the jury, that have come forward with standing in this Imran Awan constituent data going to Pakistan
    • Terabytes of this data going to Pakistan
    • Every state in this country has stepped forward--every state
    • That's going to allow us to talk to all the Senators of a Senate Armed Services Committee and make that same statement in front of testimony there
    • And then we're going to be able to sit in front of the House Armed Services Committee the one the largest committee in the United States 62 members
    • We're gonna be able to stay stand in front of them and say every state in this country every state in this country has said they want their data from Imran Awan
    • And they want to know what's gone to Pakistan and they want to know why terabytes are going over 3-month period
    • They want to know about the hundreds of suspicious activity money transfers
    • That's very important that we get every state
    • So the other piece to this is we're gonna drill down on committees now
    • So we're gonna look at the BlackBerry carriers
    • We're gonna do maps for those
    • Again, it's win one battle every day win one battle every day, rather than trying to--be ideological and then speak from a ideological platform
    • It's more win one battle every day Napoleon the eagle flies from steeple to steeple win one battle every day
    • So the battle I'm gonna win today is I'm gonna drill down on the Senate Armed Services Committee I'm gonna see how many people we already have then we're gonna target those people that don't that we haven't signed up yet
    • I would guess that we've got probably half of them already
    • But I'll do that research
    • That's the next one Senate Armed Services Committee with drill down make sure we got every member of that committee
    • So I can stand in front of that committee or someone else can stand in front of the committee and say "we have every we have standing from members of every individual every individual on this committee every individual or subcommittee that their data is on a server, iContituent server, that we believe is in Pakistan"
    • "From everything all the reports we've received we have clear but a probable belief that that data is now in Pakistan in the hands of potential enemies that are running dark weapons and drugs trade in Pakistan"
    • That's the idea here the ego flies from steeple to steeple as Napoleon said when one battle of every day every day in the court of public opinion
    • That will win the battle in the long term by itself as long as we concentrate on winning one battle every day
    • I of course will go to the World Court of course I'll go to the NATO countries of course I'll do all that other stuff to eliminate the DynCorp type practices around the world
    • But the first battle is in the Battle of the United States
    • Its opiate targeting against veterans
    • I just saw a thing that came out about the veterans
    • We've already got some we've already changed reporting policy at the Veterans Administration, where they're going to report bad behavior within five days
    • That's a new that's a new bill that's already been put up today, yesterday
    • So I want to say that there is day-to-day progress here
    • And new bills being introduced...
    • We must must keep the pressure up when one battle everyday the eagle flies from steeple steeple
  • Day 359.3. Mr Chairman, Why Are Terabytes of My Data Going To Pakistan? - YouTube
    • Day 358 this is what I said I was gonna do
    • This is the Armed Services Committee this is a big this is a big committee but I'm just gonna show how the campaign we've already run already has four out of the top six
    • Now we don't have Mac Thornberry
    • Mac Thornberry is Texas 13 Texas 13--unlucky Texas 13 lucky Texas 13 however you want to think about Texas 13
    • I think that's Texas Panhandle: we need the Texas Panhandle
    • We need to go in and say hey Mac-- why are we setting terabytes of data to Pakistan?
    • Why hundreds of suspicious money transfers?
    • Why for 17 years is this I can stitch why is Imran Awan worked for 17 years in this house for iConstituent
    • So we need Texas 13 good news is we already had that him Smith here in Washington he's already that's Washington 9 we got Adam Smith already
    • So this is the good news
    • This is kind of more of a victory lap here
    • We're not gonna other than just to show you the Senate Armed Services Committee are the House Armed Services Committee members
    • These folks are never much in the spotlight they want to keep this on the down-low
    • Here's Walter Jones North Carolina 3 in our database
    • Here's Rob Brady Pennsylvania one already in our database already been served
    • Joe Wilson people South Carolina South Carolina-everybody remembers him standing up saying you lie to the President--And getting censured in the House for doing that
    • So yeah he is on the Armed Services Committee
    • And then we've got those first we've got those last four that I mentioned but we don't have Susan Davis over here in 53
    • Now 53 over here I believe is San Diego--the Navy SEALs all that sort of thing
    • For goodness gracious if one district in the country one district in the country would want the iConstituent and all the other data out of Pakistan and the terabytes of data to flow to Pakistan and the hundreds of suspicious money transfers to Pakistan, it would be a California 53
    • If we can't get California 53, we can't get anybody
    • We need to serve Susan Davis and see those details because we're our Navy SEALs are based down there in Coronado Island
    • I don't want to really go through all the members other than to give you just a look to see if your members on here or not
    • If you see your member already it'll keep me from having to look them all up
    • I know we've done it very well in Washington for some reason just almost
    • I think that's our highest percentage we've got the Senate and House only require a quorum of 20% I believe
    • So we're at about 120 130 140 districts Senate BR the house being 435 members
    • I think we only need I mean we're well over a hundred for sure 120
    • So we're well over what we need is a quorum
    • So there's Jackie Speier--we've got to get Jackie Spears district
    • I don't know which one in California that is I know it's San Mateo where I used to work in California
    • I'll just keep going through and you can see how many members there are this is a big committee there's Tulsi Gabbard we have her committee I know Hawaii 2
    • She's gonna end up being here oh by the way
    • In every story of course you've got heroes but that causes or lays the groundwork for a hero in this case a heroine
    • She's got military service she knows you start weapons are a bad idea she knows drugs is the military looks at drugs is just a soft weapon
    • They see drugs and weapons on the same scale
    • And dark weapons all on a scale
    • They say well we're gonna have soft weapons come into the US and dark weapons go out
    • We're gonna have a soft opiate-targeting campaign in the U.S. against the deplorables
    • We'll have a overt--hot, high-intensity campaign in the the drug regions
    • So it's they almost see it as just two separate conflicts
    • The problem with low intensity campaigns
    • The problem with soft targeting the drug targeting...in this Tulsi Gabbard understands how this is yin and yang, is you they go after children
    • They go out for the children of your targets first
    • Because it's you can't really put everything together
    • It's it's more subtle it's more covert
    • It's it's nasty this is why Kennedy made the speech at American University and said we need to fight our armies during the day between man not at night against the children and the wives
    • So I'll keep going through here
    • So you can see just how big this committee really is
    • And if if I recognize any of the committee's we've already got
    • Well like we got a 50% chance in New Hampshire I know we've got half of New Hampshire
    • I know we've got all of Alabama--we're not doing to what we need to do better in about Alabama
    • Let's just keep going through here sorry I'm a little off kilter here
    • We've got a lot in California, so there's a good chance we might already have struck paydirt in California
    • We've got a lot in New York a lot in Texas we've got some Tennessee
    • Now maybe there's less than I thought there's more a lot more Republicans than I thought
    • I'm sorry Jim banks I know that guy he's that's my Congressman
    • So I know he's been served, saying then of course Liz Cheney who has her who has her office in the basement just like chick dick JD Dick Cheney did it with his office in the basement of the White House
    • So there you go
    • If you see a representative it's not nearly sixty two I don't think you see a representative save me a little time tell me a little bit more about you representative what cities what defense the possible defense contract he has in the city or she has in the city
    • I think it's a lot smaller than 62
    • It's gonna be I thought it was 27 I asked this guy goes no it's 62
    • So anyway we'll see how many it turns out be
    • So help me out with the Senate arm or the House Armed Services Committee
  • Day 359.4. Rep Steve King Says Awan Spy Ring Sold Secrets - YouTube
    • This is Day 359 part 4 very big development here from Thomas Paine True Pundit came out with this article
    • This article basically states that Steve King Congressman Steve King is sounded the alarm--sounded the alarm about the Awan clan
    • And the Awan clan basically is sending secrets to Pakistan and then other places
    • So here's Steve King interview and article
    • This is significant
    • This is a sort of a transition now from the fake hearing
    • Now we're going to be transitioning to real hearings
    • When you say that the five or six million dollars that the Juan's got is not really that significant that hundreds of thousands of dollars of IT equipment being sent to Pakistan's not really that significant
    • But the secrets and a spy ring at Congress is the issue--you've cracked you've cracked through
    • Here we've got Steve King not just saying not just saying Imran Awan not just saying his wife, but his whole clan
    • All the brothers Abid, Jamal, as well as their wives Natalia Sova, Hina Alvi, as well as the friends Haseeb Rana and RAO Speedwagon Abbas
    • So this is him saying the money the bank fraud is a pittance to what the big deal this is a big deal he said
    • It's not the six or seven million it's not the hundred twenty thousand dollars were the equipment here the biggest thing is the brothers who wants wife and friend all that access to the private emails and electronic communications of all the members of Congress
    • Now if you were a mother that had a child that was returning from Afghanistan and had PTSD is <
  • Day 360.1. Awan My Records - We Have Nine of First Ten HASC - YouTube
    • Day 360 and we've come full-circle 360 degrees in the circle this started all with pay-to-play and here we are 360 days later talking about pay-to-play
    • ay 360 and we've come full-circle 360 degrees in the circle this started all with pay-to-play and here we are 360 days later talking about pay-to-play
    • So we're gonna go to the Trello board from
    • Now on for all the letters that have been sent
    • So I have somebody that's bygone of sweeping the day 358 for any new updates to the different Congressmen
    • We picked up Delaware we picked up Rhode Island we picked up Washington DC we picked up Kansas we picked up Missouri we picked up
    • The only thing we really need at this point is Liz Cheney from Wyoming and she's on this Senate Armed Services--the House Armed Services Committee here
    • She actually runs it still from her dad
    • I think Dick Cheney's actually [still has his] finger [in the/her] pie for the Congress through his daughter
    • So we need to pick up Dick Cheney and then just South Dakota and North Dakota will have all 50 states
    • So that's great progress
    • Again, I don't want to wait on anybody
    • I want to do immediate action
    • Again, this is a purple cow: it comes in and says you're on notice retain all records
    • This is the I-wan my records campaign
    • I-wan my records I want my records and I want them
    • Now I don't want him on Awan server I want my records
    • So I won my records is been a tremendous success we're at about a hundred and fifty and
    • Now it's just a matter of updating the Trello board as we move forward
    • Go to day 358 if you want to see the letter that you need to send to your Congressman
    • And now I'll do a quick update of where we are we got the we got Thornberry and set a Texas Panhandle Texas 13 we got Thornberry we had Adam Smith we had Walter Jones North Carolina 3 we had Rob Brady Pennsylvania 1 we've got Joe you lie mr. president South Carolina number two and we got Susan Davis 53 in California
    • So that was yesterday
    • We don't have New Jersey to Frank Leblanc Beyond-oh LoBiondo
    • And the thing that the reason why Atlantic City and he's got down to Cape May that there's a big Coast Guard Station in Atlantic City and I thought man if there ever was a place where you would launder drug money you'd have cars going in and out our weapons it's gotta be gotta be that Delaware-- the inlet to the Delaware in Wilmington I just I mean I went to Department report at Wilmington and they wouldn't let me even get close
    • So we got to get we got to put Frank Le Blondo on notice good guy probably but just just in case give us Awan my records I want and my records my iConstituent records
    • We got both of Rhode Island. So we got Rhode Island 1 and 2
    • So he's covered
    • Rob Bishop I because this Hill Air Force Base and Utah want I think we got him as well
    • And we got Rick Larsen in Washington too
    • So we're making really good progress as we go down here
    • We don't have Mike Turner in Iowa and Ohio 10
    • And I don't believe in Tennessee {{ 911bs: I don't believe in Tennessee either }} we have Jim Cooper
    • So we'll just keep working our way down the list you see your name of your rep then you want to help me out before I get there that's great this is kind of where we are right
    • Now Mike Rogers in Alabama Madelyn bore de Boer Diallo in Guam-- we have a big Air Force Base there obviously in Guam
    • Trent Franks Arizona--we've got a lot of Arizona
    • Joe Courtney a Connecticut I don't know
    • Bill Shuster in Pennsylvania
    • Niki Tsongas I don't that's related to another Tsongas Paul Tsongas or not
    • Ken Conaway in Texas John Garamendi
    • Now the interesting thing the reason why this is important Doug Lamborn I spent about 3 innings with the Rockies game watching the Rockies game with Doug Lamborn the other night
    • We talked a lot about Cheyenne mountain and and different NORTHCOM and stuff it is district in Colorado Springs
    • Jackie Speier here in California
    • We need to make sure we get her it's either California tan or California 14 I can't remember which
    • But they're in committee right
    • Now I talked to the people who were doing the NDAA right here who are doing the reconciliation right now
    • If we want Smith-Mundt basically says CNN can say whatever they want they can be a propaganda outlet they could be a Pravda-- they can be-- whatever they want to be
    • Now is the time to send these records and say I want my records a 1 my records
    • Now because if they don't see the pressure of there's going to be records to prove this Smith-Mundt nonsense wrong
    • They're gonna push it through
    • We've got to stop the Smith-Mundt <
  • Day 360.2. Told Keith Ellison I Will Join MB If We Get VA Emails From Pak ISI 111 - YouTube
    • Day 360 part two
    • And interestingly enough this video Frank LoBiondo somebody came to the to the video within seconds and said "hey I'm in New Jersey district two and I where's the letter"
    • And I said all of day 358 you go there and copy and paste it and I could not make that comment back to that person and then the person's comment was gone seconds later
    • So it could be just--you know gremlins hid in the piping!
    • Or it could be Fort Meade
    • I don't know
    • But I look at it as great metadata somebody doesn't want New Jersey to in our in our little list here
    • Somebody really doesn't want Liz Cheney all the way down at the bottom in the basement, lurking around in the basement like her father used to do, in the basement of the White House, playing those weird songs--weird organ music at 3:00 or 4:00 in the morning like the Phantom of the Opera {{!lol!}}
    • So this is good news
    • As soon as we get Frank, we'll have nine of the top ten at the Armed Services Committee
    • And just moving along here in the Armed Services Committee
    • Michael Turner--he went to Dayton mall I went to Miami about 25 miles away from each other
    • This is Mr. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base he used to be the mayor of date
    • And I'm not saying he's CIA, but boy oh boy that Wright-Pat--you just you just know being a diplomatic hub: I just have had all kinds of complaints about Wright-Patterson Air Force Base with illegal contraband and huge huge diplomatic pouches coming in and out of Wright-Patt
    • So Jim Cooper I don't know I'll have to do more research
    • Mike Rogers Alabama--we have Alabama 7 is the only Alabama we have, which is a little bit disconcerting
    • And we haven't reached the great Guam Air Force Base yet,
    • But would be interested to know if we have Trent Frank
    • Joe Courtney of Connecticut we only have a couple in Connecticut Pennsylvania we're doing much better Massachusetts only a few in Massachusetts with Saugus I don't know if that's related to Paul Tsongas or not
    • So let's switch over here to the Trello board right now
    • The Trello board we just have this column of all the-- just a listing which is very hard to see if you're Congressman as if you has been notified it has been on put on notice yet
    • So what I'm gonna do is I'm concentrating on coloring up
    • What I call coloring up these are states that we have everybody that has been put on notice
    • And we have Alaska Montana Rhode Island Maine DC Delaware Hawaii and and Oregon
    • And we're very close we only need one in North Dakota North Dakota South Dakota and Wyoming
    • And we only have a couple more that we need in Washington
    • What I'd like to do is kind of color up the top of the United States
    • We were really strong in the Northeast
    • We're really strong in the northwest we just need to color in basically Michigan New York Wisconsin and new North Dakota South Dakota
    • And then we could just kind of start doing that sherwin-williams thing where the paint just comes down just comes down
    • I think we're gonna close in on the ports last oddly enough
    • So that's what I'd like to do is just kind of try to color up where we're already strong
    • We're strong in the Midwest we're getting stronger in the Midwest as well
    • And then we'll move in we'll color up on these ports we'll color up and color in to these ports
    • I told Keith Ellison Minnesota 5 that I would join the Muslim Brotherhood if we could get our data back from Pak ISI 111
    • I assured him this is not an anti-muslim thing it's not an anti pact thing it's not an anti pact is I think a lot of the members of my cricket team are PAK ISI-110 a lot of them are in Pak ISI-112
    • Love those guys just Pak 11100--that's taking terabytes of our data
    • That could be mothers--could be mother's telling their Congressmen my son needs help my son needs help at the VA hospital--he's not getting the treatment he needs for PTSD
    • That letter that letter is going to Pakistan, to PAK 111
    • And these are the guys that are publishing pictures of horrificly injured Pakistani kids and they said OK an American bomb strapped an American drone strike did this at a wedding
    • I just don't want to see a mother's letter to her Congressman about her son needing help at a VA facility going to Pak 111
    • I just don't think it's a good idea
    • I think Congressman need to be put on notice This is Day 360
    • We're tired of the constant communications to 1,200 videos
    • It has to be putting people on notice now
    • We have to talk to them in court under oath
    • I'm sorry it's come to this but that's just the way it's got to be okay
    • So that's a part two of day 360
  • Day 360.3. Lee Camp and Jared Beck Weigh In - YouTube
  • This is Day 360 part three
  • We just got no New Jersey 2
  • So that's gonna mean good things for our services committee update I just wanted to point out on Twitter this is Lee Camp from redacted
  • He's the funny good-looking guy who runs that show called Redacted and he's saying follow George Webb
  • Hey that's nice thanks Lee
  • I saw him I met him over at one of the clubs--one of the Seth Rich clubs actually
  • I think we're gonna find what before it's all said and done I can't remember the name of it right now, but supposedly that night some of the folks thought he went to that one of the comedy clubs on the way to the dojo comedy club
  • Can't remember the name right now
  • But anyway then
  • So that was nice to say thanks Lee
  • Jared Beck is also behind this this Jan and dot-com Network
  • There is that a one server I still say it went to Hawkshead
  • And I say there's another one down at the Navy Yard at M on M Boulevard I say they're mirrored
  • But that's for later
  • I just wanted to show the really good progress we were making on the Armed Services Committee
  • Just this morning obviously we got Thornberry there
  • We got Thornberry we we got Texas 13
  • We got Adam Smith Washington 2 or 7 I can't remember which
  • We've got Jones, North Carolina 3
  • We got Robert Brady Pennsylvania 1
  • Joe Wilson "you lie Mr. president" South Carolina 2
  • Susan Davis 53 down there in Coronado with those Navy SEALs
  • And we just got New Jersey 2 Frank LoBiondo, which is going to be big
  • And then of course we had Rhode Island James Langevin
  • And then Rob Bishop in Utah Utah one
  • Rick Larson over there in Washington
  • We're close on Washington
  • We just need three districts in Washington to have the whole state of Washington
  • And we need Mike Turner Ohio 10 right there's Mike Turner I told you about him
  • He was also the representative to the liaison between NATO and the European Union for a couple years
  • Now I never said he was CIA--I never said that I never said that
  • Jim Cooper we also picked up Tennessee ten I think that as Tennessee ten
  • It's interesting because the Foreign Affairs Committee or excuse me on House Armed Services Committee is divided into two sections
  • One's called strategic the others tactical arms
  • So strategic arms being more like the Bombers and that sort of thing, except deep strike bombers, which I think means he doesn't have that B-1 bomber
  • And then they also have the Department of Energy the oversight see the Department of Energy for weapons-grade uranium I believe
  • Now I believe non-nuclear alliteration proliferation programs is still run by the FBI that's kind of a carve out
  • So it'd be interesting to see if that whole NSC or I can't remember or the Association that doesn't on nuclear proliferation: who oversees that in Congress--that'd be an interesting question
  • But see already we're pretty far through now the interesting thing is you go down here
  • Trent Franks we have him already
  • Now interestingly enough mike rogers there's three guys in the alabama from the Alabama delegation who don't have that are on that strategic arms committee
  • Turns out that Niki Tsongas is Paul Tsongas' Widow
  • She's gonna be retiring from Congress we don't have her yet I don't think
  • Conway from Texas I believe we do have
  • Doug Lamborn we do have I know as my baseball watching partner I won't say where
  • And so we're moving down the list here quite well
  • So we had Tulsi as I said
  • Now Duncan Hunter is fit as California 52
  • We have 51 and we have 53
  • We just need to fill that inside straight there at Duncan Hunter
  • I think he used to be a major in the Army served in Afghanistan a good guy I think
  • And we just need him on our side we just need to get that data
  • Remember we're not only going for emails we're not only going for records for i-Cconstituent
  • We're also going for all the equipment that was sent to Pakistan give me all the CDW invoices because those CDW invoices look like they went to Pakistan before they got rerouted to Hawkshead
  • They look like they got rerouted after after February the second after February the second
  • That's what I'm saying. I'm saying all the detritus from the teardown---to this server was in Becerra's office
  • I think the server went to Hawkshead
  • You heard it here first: the server went to Hawkshead
  • The BlackBerry's went to Hawkshead
  • I think there are going to be hundreds if not thousands of BlackBerries
  • I'll explain that. why
  • Because all these fake names, all these fake personalities, all these people who've got HELOC loans,
  • The loans from the Congress all open these little pop-up stores, these little pop-up cell phone shops,
  • And I believe they were all selling dope is iPhones all over Washington
  • I now think the number of dope phones is going to be in the thousands
  • And now think the number of doped phone is going to be in the thousands
  • Remember this is a 17 year program a 17 year program
  • I think it's going to be in the thousands
  • I think this is gonna unlock--this is gonna be exact like exactly like India Parliament which was 3,000 phones in India
  • 3000 phones I believe
  • The two SIM box the SIM boxes the 30 SIM boxes I think were 3,000 phones
  • Again, this is Hawaii one
  • I'm pretty sure we have Hawaii one yeah we have Hawaii one
  • We have New Hampshire so this is good
  • We have a lot in Ohio.
  • Not sure here we need more in Alabama Alabama's our big e we've got a lot in Virginia
  • So we probably have him already
  • We're picking up Missouri probably have him already
  • A lot in California there's good chances here
  • I just published New York maybe maybe a good chance here
  • We're doing well and got Steny Hoyer we got Steny Hoyer district with the district I'm in right now in Capitol Heights
  • We need to get the rest of Maryland filled in we can do that pretty quickly I think and get another state there
  • Arizona is about ready to fall--if we concentrate on Arizona we only have about three more districts there in Arizona here
  • Then we might have that already Oklahoma is about ready to fall
  • So we're close on Oklahoma
  • So we'll get that by default
  • We've got a lot in Tennessee and that's coming along well
  • As well as California is doing well but Missouri is doing well Louisiana we're doing well
  • We have a good chance of maybe by Monday by this by tomorrow having enough to actually win a vote in Congress
  • We may get over it we're about 150 now somewhere in there
  • I think maybe by tomorrow if we concentrate on it we'll have enough to win a vote in this committee
  • We'll have enough to have a majority in this committee--who knows even win a vote in Congress with 223 if that's what it takes to win
  • I think it I can't remember - 218 for 220 a cameraman well come back to 220 221 whatever it takes
  • We'll talk to you later in the afternoon but very good progress
  • We need to work on dropping Iowa you only need one district for Iowa we only need a couple districts for about eight or nine other different states
  • And then of course we have Colorado I believe Coffman here as well
  • So we're almost to a plurality here
  • Majority here on the House Armed Services Committee, which is really good news
  • Day 360.4. Can You Hear the Shredders in Port Districts? - YouTube
    • NO AUTOCAPTIONS, so 911bs winging it
    • Wrapup--ended up at 175. A lot of states just need one
    • Liz Cheney must have the fear of God of Cheney's Shadow in Whyoming
    • Cheney's secret is to be last and hide in the shadows/basement
    • Time to move on from Cheney's crap
    • This goes back to the Rose {{ HRC's Corrupt Globalist / Kissingerian }} Lawfirm with this thing: you can almost hear the shredders on iConstituent
    • iConstituent is going to be the key. G's prediction is the codes between NGPVan and iConstituent is going to be right on the money
    • Metadata suggests to G that we are on the target with iConstituent
    • Separate the legislative systems from the donation systems.
    • If you want a pay-to-play you join them together {{ 911bs: correlated also for citizen poltical-targetting "of deplorables" as feeder data for Fusion centers/JTTF }}
    • Imran Awan spent 17 yrs on these 2 systems is exactly that
    • Reason why members are resisting in these districts in both Repub and Dem is because of the pay-to-play--they dont' want to give up their free money machinery
    • G give instructions to get 'all served'
submitted by 911bodysnatchers322 to TruthLeaks [link] [comments]


2016.10.07 04:01 Constant_Gardner11 Results of the r/nyyankees offseason survey!

A big thank you to the 240 people who took the survey! I realize it was overly long, but I kinda got carried away.
Here is the spreadsheet with the individual results.
If you don't feel like shifting through the spreadsheet, I've done my best to give you all the data below.

COACHING STAFF

Coach Fire Keep Offer Extension
Joe Girardi 6.7% 72.5% 20.8%
Brian Cashman 2.9% 59.6% 37.5%
Alan Cockrell 40.9% 59.1% N/A
Marcus Thames 16.4% 83.6% N/A
Larry Rothschild 32.8% 67.2% N/A
Tony Pena 2.1% 97.9% N/A
Joe Espada 31.6% 68.4% N/A
Rob Thomson 8% 92% N/A
 
If you fire Joe Girardi, who would you hire as the new Yankees manager? Responses included: Alex Rodriguez (7), Tony Pena (4), Gary Sanchez (2), Bud Black (2), Derek Jeter (1), Joe Torre (1), Ron Washington (1), Jorge Posada (2), Don Mattingly (3), the corpse of Billy Martin (1), u/pinata_penis_pump2 (1), Jason Giambi (1), Dave Martinez (1), Jesus Christ (1), Nick Saban (1), Willie Randolph (1), Robin Ventura (1), Mike Mussina (1), Dave Miley (1), David Ortiz (1), Barry Bonds (1), Ozzie Guillen (1), Tom Coughlin (1), The Binder (1)
If you fire Brian Cashman, who would you hire as the new Yankees GM? Responses included: Gary Sanchez (3), Derek Jeter (2), Brad Pitt (1), Theo Epstein (4), Jon Daniels (1), Steve Phillips (1), Harambe (1), Walt Jocketty (1), George Costanza (1), Shiraz Rehman (1), David Ortiz (1), Alex Rodriguez (1), Andrew Friedman (1), Alex Anthopoulos (1), Farhan Zaidi (1), Dave Stewart (1)

ROSTER

Player Trade No Matter What Trade Only For the Right Players Keep Offer Extension Release
Brian McCann 28% 62.3% 7.9% 0.4% 1.3%
Austin Romine 13% 37.2% 47.7% 0% 2.1%
Gary Sanchez 0.4% 0.8% 58.3% 39.2% 1.2%
Tyler Austin 1.3% 32.8% 63.9% 1.3% 0.8%
Starlin Castro 1.7% 22.9% 70.4% 4.2% 0.8%
Didi Gregorius 1.3% 6.3% 67.1% 24.6% 0.8%
Chase Headley 11.7% 52.3% 31.8% 0% 4.2%
Rob Refsnyder 9.6% 55.6% 31.8% 0.8% 2.1%
Ronald Torreyes 2.5% 35.7% 57.6% 1.3% 2,9%
Jacoby Ellsbury 24.2% 49.6% 23.8% 0% 2.5%
Brett Gardner 14.6% 56.1% 26.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Aaron Hicks 16.8% 35.3% 31.3% 0.4% 16.8%
Mason Williams 5.5% 39.7% 49.4% 0% 5.5%
Aaron Judge 1.3% 8.8% 84.9% 4.2% 0.8%
Greg Bird 0% 4.2% 85.3% 8.4% 2.1%
Masahiro Tanaka 0% 6.3% 67.8% 24.7% 1.3%
CC Sabathia 3.4% 15.1% 74.4% 1.3% 5.9%
Michael Pineda 17.2% 48.1% 31.4% 0.8% 2.5%
Luis Cessa 0.8% 26.7% 69.9% 0.8% 1.7%
Luis Severino 1.3% 18.6% 77.2% 1.3% 1.7%
Chad Green 0.4% 22.6% 75.7% 0% 1.3%
Bryan Mitchell 0.9% 26% 69.8% 1.7% 1.7%
Dellin Betances 0.4% 9.6% 74.5% 13.8% 1.7%
Tyler Clippard 0.8% 21.2% 66.9% 8.9% 2.1%
Adam Warren 1.3% 20.3% 71.6% 5.9% 0.8%
Anthony Swarzak 9.4% 19.2% 20.5% 0.4% 50.4%
Kirby Yates 7.7% 29.6% 22.3% 0% 40.3%
Chasen Shreve 7.3% 32.9% 47.9% 0.4% 11.5%
Blake Parker 3.8% 32.1% 45.7% 0.4% 17.9%
James Pazos 5.2% 33% 40.4% 0% 21.3%
Tommy Layne 2.6% 24.6% 61.2% 2.6% 9.1%
Jonathan Holder 2.2% 30% 59.1% 0.4% 8.3%
Ben Heller 1.3% 23.1% 69% 0.4% 6.1%
Richard Bleier 4.5% 33.2% 48.9% 0.4% 13%
Nick Goody 11.6% 29.3% 34.2% 0% 24.9%
 

TRADE CHIPS

How do you feel about our farm system?
Player Pry Him Out of my Cold Dead Hands Reluctant to Trade Him Don’t Care Let’s See What We Can Get!
Clint Frazier 63.3% 31.6% 3% 2.1%
Gleyber Torres 43.6% 43.6% 9.3% 3.4%
Jorge Mateo 29.8% 43.8% 17% 9.4%
Aaron Judge 48.3% 39.1% 8% 4.6%
Blake Rutherford 47.2% 35.2% 15% 2.6%
Justus Sheffield 30.7% 54.1% 13.4% 1.7%
Miguel Andujar 4.3% 31.2% 57.6% 6.9%
Domingo Acevedo 7% 40% 42.2% 10.9%
James Kaprielian 29.7% 46.1% 21.1% 3%
Dillon Tate 13.9% 46.5% 35.2% 4.3%
Dustin Fowler 7% 31% 49.3% 12.7%
Chance Adams 11% 33.8% 44.7% 10.5%
Tyler Wade 4.4% 29.4% 52.2% 14%

FREE AGENTS

I asked survey respondents to rate each possible free agent on a scale of 10 (I really want this guy) to 1 (I hate this guy). Here are the average results.
Player Average Survey Response (10 to 1)
Aroldis Chapman 8.3
Kenley Jansen 6.1
Mark Melancon 6.0
Greg Holland 5.0
Yoenis Cespedes 4.8
Rich Hill 4.6
Justin Turner 4.2
Mark Trumbo 4.2
Jeremy Hellickson 4.2
Jaime Garcia 4.0
Sergio Romo 4.0
Ian Desmond 3.9
Andrew Cashner 3.8
Carlos Beltran 3.8
Drew Storen 3.8
Edwin Encarnacion 3.5
Josh Reddick 3.4
Neil Walker 3.4
Joaquin Benoit 3.3
Ivan Nova 3.2
Matt Holiday 3.1
Michael Saunders 3.1
Jay Bruce 3.1
Pedro Alvarez 2.9
Wilson Ramos 2.8
Matt Weiters 2.4
Mike Napoli 2.1
Jered Weaver 2.1
Jose Bautista 1.9
Chase Utley 1.8
 
Is there a free agent not listed here that you would pursue?
Responses included: Mark Teixeira (1), Koji Uehara (1), Santiago Casilla (1), Josh Thole (1), Don Mattingly (1), Hisashi Iwakuma (2), Doug Fister (1), Edinson Volquez (1), my mom (2), Jason Giambi’s Golden Thong (1), Lourdes Gurriel (1), Colby Rasmus (1), Shohei Otani (1), Ubaldo Jimenez (1), Bartolo Colon (1), Joba Chamberlain (1)
If the Nippon-Ham Fighters post Shohei Otani, would you try to sign him?
Yes, aggressively – 41% Yes, but I wouldn’t spend too much - 41% I’d place a bid just for kicks – 13.5% No – 4.4%

TRADE TARGETS

Player Percent of Survey Respondents Who Want Him
Chris Archer 59.4%
Chris Sale 53%
Sonny Gray 48.4%
Jose Quintana 31.1%
Yasiel Puig 24.2%
Jake Odorizzi 24.2%
Dave Robertson 23.7%
Carlos Gonzalez 14.2%
Ryan Braun 5.9%
Melky Cabrera 3.7%
Nick Markakis 2.7%
Chris Carter 2.3%
Albert Pujols 1.8%
Derek Norris 0.9%
 
Which player(s) not listed here would you try to trade for? Responses included: Mike Trout (10), Matt Kemp (1), Kevin Gausman (1), Andrew Miller (2), Matt Moore (1), Darren O’Day (1), Eric Hosmer (1), Wil Myers (1), Anthony Rendon (1), Joey Votto (2), Jurickson Profar (1), Tim Tebow (1), Zach Davies (1), Todd Frazier (1), Huston Street (1), Mike Leake (1), DJ Lemahieu (1), Felix Hernandez (1), Stephen Piscotty (1), Bryce Harper (1), Taijuan Walker (1), Andrew McCutchen (1), Nolan Arenado (1), Wade Miley (1), Manny Machado (1), Shelby Miller (1), Matt Harvey (1), Lucas Giolito (1), Michael Wacha (1)

RULE FIVE

Player Add to 40-Man Roster Expose to the Draft
Jorge Mateo 94.4% 5.6%
Kyle Higashioka 34.8% 65.2%
Miguel Andujar 45% 55%
Jake Cave 23.3% 76.7%
Cito Culver 11.8% 88.2%
Dietrich Enns 20.6% 79.4%
Brady Lail 10.3% 89.7%
Tyler Webb 24.9% 75.1%
Mark Montgomery 34.1% 65.9%

STRATEGIES

Player This Strategy is a Highest Priority
Increasing pitching depth 74.3%
Adding workhorse starters 61%
Adding bullpen depth 56.4%
Adding contact hitters 44.4%
Adding power starters 43.2%
Adding power relievers 34.9%
Adding power hitters 34.4%
Building farm system 28.2%
Replacing coaching staff 8.3%
Improving team defense 7.9%
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Introduction to Comparators 10 de agosto de 2020 From Google Maps and heightmaps to 3D Terrain - 3D Map ... Tech Tip: How to Back Up Your Davis WeatherLink Data - YouTube DSP Topic 3: Introduction Sampling & Aliasing Mateo - YouTube View/Export Raw EnviroMonitor Sensor Data on WeatherLink ... Playing Guitar on Omegle Ep. 11 - Otamatone Metal - YouTube UMEK - Anomalies In Heart Rate (Original Mix) - YouTube

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  1. Introduction to Comparators
  2. 10 de agosto de 2020
  3. From Google Maps and heightmaps to 3D Terrain - 3D Map ...
  4. Tech Tip: How to Back Up Your Davis WeatherLink Data - YouTube
  5. DSP Topic 3: Introduction Sampling & Aliasing
  6. Mateo - YouTube
  7. View/Export Raw EnviroMonitor Sensor Data on WeatherLink ...
  8. Playing Guitar on Omegle Ep. 11 - Otamatone Metal - YouTube
  9. UMEK - Anomalies In Heart Rate (Original Mix) - YouTube
  10. PRO Surfer/Model gets his Shoulder HAMMERED after foot ...

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